Friday, May 12, 2006

"Issue" Politics

Harris Interactive has a new poll out. Not much new, W is at 29%, congress is at 28%. But looking through the other data, in particular, the data the question, "What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?" and this interesting info comes up.

Immigration goes from 2% in 2003 to 16% (the second highest) today. Gas is similar, but there's a catalyst for it. Immigration is a created issue. No one cared until the GOP told them to care. Unemployment's at 5% and the economy is humming.

A cynic would say that the GOP created it, as they did the "Gay Marriage will destroy America" issue (which, while we still don't have an amendment marginalizing Americans, the country still hasn't collapsed-fingers crossed), as an election year issue. Only it looks like this one has backfired. While its easy to rally the base around hating gays, immigrants are harder. They work (like gays), they attend church (like gays), but unlike gays, we all come from immigrants. That and there's nothing inherently creepy about them. I think immigration is a terrible issue for the GOP, its really dividig it, only creating more of an opportunity for the Dems. Bad issue creation.

For all the press that the Dems are getting on their chances in 2008, they rank a whopping 3% higher (20 v. 23%) at the congressional level. I wouldn't plan that "We're Relevant Again" post taking the House party just yet if I were them.

Also interesting in the poll, Social Security is actually down from 25% in 1999, to 4% today. This is after Bush made SS reform the focus of his second term. Nothing's changed and people aren't as worried about it. Oops.

Despite MSMRight carping on about the "War on Christmas" and "War on Catholisism" "Decline of Religion" is at 2%.

Apparantly M3K is all alone in his quest for World Peace at 1%, but it still makes a heckuva answer in all those beauty pagents he enters.

Really interesting to see what American's care and don't care about in that whole section.

If Love for UBlo is a Disability, Then Add One More

20 % of the population is disabled. Um...no it's not. The term "disabled" has simply been stretched to an ubsurd degree so as to count as many heads as possible and justify ever more funding to fight this "growing epidemic". Nothing could be easier to document then all the unworthy cases currently being funded by programs designed to help those who can't help themselves. But, for some odd reason that few on this blog can discern, the media never brings those cases to our intention. Instead, they report statistics of questionable merit to us and consider the case closed. I deserve better!

Throwing up a soft-ball for Malone and all the other "science haters."

Good article on Global Warming in Mother Earth Journal. Wait, I mean Wall St. Journal. Says its free, let me know if its true, or if they lie like all the other corporate widow muggers.

It lays out the case for man-made global warming, but unlike other articles I've read it gets into "why" the data points to man-made, rather than just repeating man-made again and again. Like, for example, I just did.

I thought it was very convincing, and uses real nerdy words like, "Walker Circulation," Pacific decadal oscillation" and "natural variability."

Malone, this is my gift to you.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Looks like Malone's write in campaign worked



Ok Malone, now you can really enjoy the View.

"How it works," a play by the Unknow Blogger

So I guess this is how it works in our democracy.

The Nation: White House, we think you've committed a crime.

White House: (Not bothering to look up from "Family Circus" cartoon) Mmm-hmm...

TN: Seriously, we're investigating

WH: Oooh, "Marmaduke" looks funny today.

TN: Anyway, we need to collect information, or evidence, to see if you've committed a crime.

WH: No can do...classified.

TN: Well...ok then. I guess we're done here.

WH: (Moving on to "Dennis the Mennace") Ha! Got Margaret again.

Hey froggies, the waters getting warmer

First Bush appoints the guy who started the warrentless wire taps to be the new head of the CIA, then it comes out that that very same NSA is collecting and storing data on every call made in the US, but this is OK becasue Bush says, "Our efforts are focused on links to al Qaeda and their known affiliates," and, "The privacy of ordinary Americans is fiercely protected in all our activities." Except that Hayden, while very certain he knows the Fourth Amendment, well...doesn't. In this telling exchange, he shows very clearly that he's not aware of the laws he's sworn to uphold. It may also explain why he thinks he's not doing anything wrong, but alas, he is. I'm still trying to figure out how keeping records of millions on Americans phone calls is a "focused" effort on Al Qaeda.

Seriously, its like these guys read Orwell not as warning, but as a field manual.

Rock-y, Rock-y, Rock-y

I'm back baby

So I'm back from my vacation to London. I visit the most newsworthy site on the net, you're reading it, and find that in the two weeks that I was gone...nothing happened. I fully expected Stalin to make his mark on the blog since I was gone and unable to fully reject his points like I do his little girly shots on the court. But no, like the NeoGOP, he is unable to generate his own points and can only bash the creativity of others. As far as M3K, well, I'm scared of M3K so...well...hey buddy, good to see you again. Well Stalin, get your feet ready to tromp on the sandcastles of my creativity.

Before I get into current events, let me give a quick shout out to London. Great city, probably my favorite world-wide, you know, as far as foreign cities go. We all know that our most sludgefilled cesspool of a town (I'm looking at you Buffalo) is better than the best that any other nation can offer up.

A few things they do right.

One, dollar coin (they call them "pounds" how cute is that?). Always a big fan of this, saves a ton of money. We just need to stop producing dollar bills, and stop making dollar coins that look like quarters. Make them bigger, thicker, look like doughnuts, even square, I don't care, but just please stop making dollar coins look like quarters. (As a side note I also favor getting rid of pennies. If something has so little value that people won't bend down to pick them up off the ground (meaning they're worth less than "free," we should get rid of them. England misses here, they have one cent and two cent coins. Just waisted all that money they saved with dollar coins.)

They speak english. I sure wish all the other foreign countries would follow suit. Much easier to get around.

They use metric, sort of. I'm also a big fan of the metric system, just makes more sense. But they also use miles. Very bizzare. You'll be driving down the road reading everything in k's, and a sign will pop up out of nowhere saying to please drive 15 mph, or that a new exit is in 5 miles. They also use a weight system called "stones." I have no idea what the hell that is.

The underground rules. It got me thinking. The big belief in the US is that mass transit doesn't work. But what I don't hear is how that failure is measured. Its not use, because you could just make it free to increase usership. So it must be cost. Some sort of subsidy hurdle must be used to determine success and failure. But compared to what? Cars? Here's where it gets interesting. I'm curious about the all in cost of cars v. subways. Oil is subsidized, as are the cars themselves, and most importantly the roads are massively subsidized (I'm just focusing on direct costs and ignoring things like health issues due to particulate emmissions, injuries, fatalities, crime, etc). If we're just looking at all-in costs, then cars in Alaska, for example, are a massive failure. Should we abandon them? I think that the car subsidy is so entrenched that it gets ignored. So much so that when people talk of FDR's role in creating big government, they never, ever talk of Ike creating the federal highway system. Talk about a massive increase in govt spending. Even if you still buy the hype that we need an internal network to move troops around the nation in event of an attack, surely we can all agree that we don't need more that two lanes to serve that purpose. If Atlanta needs 12 lanes, that feels like an Atlanta problem, not a Palm Harbor, FL problem, so why are those people paying for it? My gut says that on a per person, per mile base, subways are much cheaper than cars. Its just that the costs associated with cars are so spread out, that they become invisible. Now before Stalin freaks out on me, my point isn't to build more subways, rather that in a free market with no subsidies, my bet is that trains are cheaper, and are/would be more "successful" than currently assumed.

Finally, all prices include tax. If something says 25.45, you pay 25.45. I'm not smart enough to figure taxes so I need this.

That's enough for now. The pound is already killing the dollar, I don't want them to get too heady.

Saturday, May 06, 2006

The 1st in a Series of 1 Reports on Pain at the Pump


"Now, I'm just going to work and coming home — not doing anything else," said Kathleen Roberts, who makes a daily, 100-mile round trip from York, Pa., to her teaching job in Baltimore.

***
Hearing talk about short vacations upsets Susan Morang, a psychiatric counselor from Washington, Maine. She helps clients deliver antiques for sale during the summer tourism season.

"Each summer, you have to make the majority of your money to live on the whole rest of the year," said Morang, who has cut her driving to the minimum.

Morang's GMC truck guzzles gas, but she said she needs it to help clients haul their belongings. "A lady paid me $40 yesterday," she said. "I used it to fill my gas tank halfway."

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Boomerang


Well, I'm off for vacation, so I probably won't be blogging much for the next few weeks. So much left to say about the gas "crisis" like how the taxpayers will have to bail out GM and Ford if prices keep going up and consumers react, meaning Detriot's big bet on SUV's will fail. But I'll be back.

Well that didn't take long...

Bill O'Reilly made the link to national security and called for the feds to consider taking over oil companies if they don't reform their evil ways of making money in a free market. He also went one further and said that the oil execs should be jailed for war profiteering. This is on top of his accusations of price gouging, and other nonsense. Sorry but I caught all these on his radio show so I can't link to anything. Bad reporting, I know, but this is a blog.

I don't know much about Bill so I can't discuss him in general. On this point though...One, how can you be "gouged" on a voluntary purchase? I can't be gouged on M&M's because I can choose not to buy them. Now, maybe, maybe I could be "gouged" on potable water after a disaster, but that's another discussion. Two, he also said the goverment was in league with oil companies because higher gas prices mean more revenue due to the gas tax. Except...gas taxes are mill levies, meaning they're static. If the tax is $.15 a gallon then it's $.15 on $1, and $.15 on $3. If anything, higher gas prices mean less consumption, and that leads to less revenue. Maybe that's while we'll see the government "save" us from this crisis. The good news is that as gas prices go up, the percentage of that price that's because of taxes goes down. Meaning that our already global low in gas tax as a percentage goes down even more. See, it's fun to play with math. Fianlly, "war profiteering?" How about Google, they're making a profit? Or any of the other of the 5000+ public companies that are making money. In fact the market has been on a bull run for years, and is now approaching "longest in history" status. Personally I think this shows just how strong and resiliant our country is. But "war profiteering" now he's accusing people of crimes...for making money...legally. Oh well, here we go...

Aaaaaah, we're all gonna die! Or at least be forced to speak Mandarin

Now $3 gas is a "matter of national security." Look I sympathise with Bush here. I really think he doesn't want to do anything on this (we may have different motives, but I think we agree on the end plan, let the market work this out), and he's right. But his speech, as reported here, is just off the mark, and makes matters worse. If not filling the strategic oil reserves makes people think something is happening fine, whatever. But if access to oil is an issue of "national security" then it actually makes more sense to fill the strategic oil reserves now. Keep oil on hand for the military. However, I don't see how $3 gas has anything at all to do with national security. Why add gas to the flame (thank you, thank you very much)? Making a national security issue out of a consumer good only adds more irrationality to the issue. I've argued in the past that its dumb for us to fund our enemies with oil profits, but that was the case at $1.50 gas, why is it an issue now? Personally, I think Bush was making a subtle distinction. Our use of oil is a matter of national security (and I largely agree), but that he also has a plan to bring down the cost of gas. However, in the same speech, I'm not sure the difference will matter to people. You'll hear more people now talk about $3 gas being a security issue than not.

I also liked this part, "and that is to encourage conservation..." But Cheney said in a speech in Toronto, that "conservation may be a sign of personal virtue, but it is not a sufficient basis for a sound, comprehensive energy policy". I personally don't care which side of the equation you fall on, "government mandated conservation" or "free markets will force conservation when the time is right" but stick to one. What's happening now is that all those folks that mocked conservation as market meddling, now want the government to do something when the market forces prices higher. Granted this isn't new. People have always wanted all the upside of market forces, but with a safety net to protect them from both the market and thier own choices when it starts to move against them. What's happening now with gas prices is exactly what pro-market, anti-government, anti-environmental, whatever you want to call them, said would happen. Gas prices would go higher as supplies went down, or world-wide consumption increased. We've had a great run of cheap gas, it may come back, it may not. But conservation is also an economic choice. At some point the two (virtue and cold hard economics) would connect, and maybe that's now. If you own an SUV that gets 10 miles to the gallon you can cut your gas expense in half or even a third by buying a car with better mpg. You conserve gas by making an economic decision. And/or the market develops an alternative fuel to bring prices down. In any case, America lessens its "addiction to oil". Where in that equation was the government? Markets work. But they go up and down.

If people truely believe that oil is a matter of national security then the Feds should do what they're supposed to do with these issues. Invest heavliy in our protection. Spend the money to develop alternatives. A "Manhattan Project" to get us off of our "addiction." (I don't think its a matter of national security, and wouldn't support it. The market is really working here on all fronts. My point here is that actions don't match words.)

But I just don't think with $3 gas China's going to invade. Let's not add to the insanity.

Looks like the market is speaking loud and clear, well maybe just loud.

Apparantly all those folks Hastert's trying to protect aren't having to make hard choices after all. One in four cars sold in the first quarter had V8 engines, the same as it was last year. This news comes as gas price "conerns" are high enough to warrant special taxes and commissions. Granted it may be early in the cycle, but gas was above $2 a gallon for all of last year. If Hastert's "American families" really had to make "tough choices" wouldn't they be making them?

I'm sorry

It turns out that high gas prices may be my fault. To all of our loyal readers, and drivers everywhere, "I'm sorry."

Transcript:

O’REILLY: Prices have doubled in the USA and continue to go up. What say you sir?

SNOW: Well, this is where you get to call me a pinhead again, Bill. You’re absolutely right, supplies are high. But a couple of different things going on.

Different types of oil that are in supply. Oil refining costs have gone up a little bit. But let’s be real about this: 60 percent of the price of a gallon of gasoline right now is crude oil prices. Crude oil over $70 a gallon right now. That gets written into the price. Why is that per gallon crude oil price so high? Because people are jittery.

You’ve got a guy in Iran saying we’re going to build a nuclear weapon. You’ve got people complaining about Donald Rumsfeld and the Pentagon. There are jitters about the stability of the Middle East. Those subside and a number of people say this, analysts in the industry, the price goes down again.

Ok everyone, my bad. I've complained about Rumsfeld, and I'm concerned about stability in the Middle East. I don't know how I could be so reckless. Ok, here we go...Rumsfeld is a great guy doing a great job! The Middle East is also great, and I don't see any cause for worry. It's like a mini-America over there.

Now quick, run to the pumps, did the price of gas go down?

Bush Caves

And I mean "caves" in the lightest sense. Any President would do the same. Still, I think his long held point that "gas prices are high because global demand is rising faster than global supply and that the problem cannot be solved overnight" is correct. That and its the company's right to charge whatever they want for their product. Something as crucial as gas should cost more than bottled water, but it doesn't. So now we're all set up to hear Congress set up public forums to trash some execs. This will cost the tax-payers money and solve nothing. Hooray, gas just got even more expensive!

Monday, April 24, 2006

Overblown II

In the same article, the Dems hope to use this gas "crisis" and turn it into election roses. Two things. One, the Dems have yet to show that they know how to capitalize on anything, and its optomistic to assume they've figured out how now. Two, with voting districts drawn as they are, even if on the gross level, Dems have more votes in Novemember, there still won't be much turnover. Most seats are just too safe to turn on the margins.

Overblown I

To quote Hastert, "Anyone who is trying to take advantage of this situation while American families are forced into making tough choices over whether to fill up their cars or severely cut back their budgets should be investigated and prosecuted,"

Ok, let's take a look at how bad this "tough chice" is and how "severe" the cuts must be. This is not at all scientific, but here goes. I don't remember hearing much griping about gas at $2 a gallon. If it's now $3, then that's $1 more per gallon in cost. Figure if your car has a 10 gallon tank, that's a whopping $10 more per fill-up, or less than a movie ticket. Ohhhh, the humanity. Yes, if you have a Ford Expedition with its 8 mpg city rating (which is actually less given EPA flaws) and 44 gallon tank its almost $50 dollars more per tank, and you're filling it up a lot, but that's the consumers choice. Sell the Excursion, take that money, buy a car with better mpg, make some money and save at the pump. Or not. I don't see why Congress has to protect the consumers abiliy to own whatever they want.

This is far from crisis. An electoral issue maybe, but not a real one.

And the gap closes

It seems that the GOP is doing its best to close the gap on the "liberal" boogieman. Here Specter has the brilliant plan of "windfall" taxation on the oil companies. Brilliant move. Historically, a great strategy is to mimic the failures of those you defeat. "Hey, someones successful, lets punish them!" What the oil companies have found out is that they can charge more for their product, and they are. What is now happening is that OPEC has realized that they are undercharging for their product, so they are also adjusting their prices upwards. At some point the consumer will react and/or a substitute will evolve.

What is clear, is that maybe we can actually shrink goverment spending by cutting the billions in oil company subsidies that we currently spend to help these fledgeling, helpless businesses. Seriously, if there's one place to help the budget its in cutting the subsidies. Everyone wins. Spending goes down, corporate taxes do not go up, everyone gets what they want.

Other highlights from the article...
He laments industry consolodation. Proving his economic acumen he now realizes that decreasing competition leads to less price competition. On an intersting side note, breaking the companies up will become a topic of discussion. I'm generally against this type of action, but the barriers to entry are so high that its difficult for a normal free market solution to work. Meaning, if the oil companies keep prices high, new competition will likely not develop to take advantage of the high profit margins. However, substitution can still occur. So stay tuned.

Dem Levin plays a very weak "heads I win, tails you lose" card. He says it would be helpful if Bush called the oil execs in for a talk. Then says Bush would never do that. Then, and here's the kicker, says even if Bush did do what he says he wouldn't, it still wouldn't matter because Bush would chit-chat and not deliver any real message. See there's no way for Bush to win. If he calls them in as Levin wants and it works, it was Levins idea. If Bush calls them in and it doesn't work, it's because Bush went all gushy on them. If Bush doesn't call them in, then Bush is soft on his oil buddies. But it doesn't really matter because no one pays attention to Levin anyway.

Sunday, April 23, 2006

While I'm on a roll


This is a no brainer, if you accept public money you have to keep the gay students. If you don't want gay students, don't take public money. It's exacly the same with Rumsfeld v. FAIR, which was unanimous + 1 since I agreed too. My question here is will the Cumberland case also be unanimous if it hits the SCOTUS docket? My bet is no.

Finally, since I'm trying to lose all my friends, the Boy Scouts should have to allow homosexuals and athiests as members as they too get federal money. Again, if they don't want to allow these types, don't take the cash.

Let the bible belt come and save my soul

Georgia has a great idea. Teach an actual bible class in High School, with "statewide guidelines and earmark public dollars" This is just a bad, bad idea. One, I think this version is un-constitutional, it goes much farther than allowing a bible study club to use a room after school. And two, how can anyone think its a good idea to allow teachers and state bureaucrats to determine how to teach religion to students? Third I can only imagine the pandora's box (quick nod to Greek religion, no... "mythology") that this move, if (when) the Supreme Court upholds it. Does every faith get a publicly funded bible class? What about sub-groups? Will there be a Babtist class and a Greek Orthodox class? What about the Wicans? With all the cuts being made to classes, art, music, PE, they're going to increase something that can and should be taught by parents and churches? Genius. Do you really want a union teacher teaching your child religion? Everyone loses here, everyone.

For all those who wish to bring church and state together, there just isn't a worse idea floating around today than this.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

If This is Baloney, I'll Have Seconds

On another happy topic

I was reading about this killer in Main, the guy who killed two people then himslef. First off, tragic. Tragic all around. It appears that the only link between the two victims is that were both listed on a sex offender registry. First, when it comes to sex offenders, I want to quote something an old friend of mine said a long time ago about someone else, but it applies here, "if I saw that guy walking down the street I'd shoot him with a shotgun and not think twice about it." I mean it, it would take 10 guys to pull me off of one, and I'm little. But there's this. One of the victims was apparantly on the list becasue at 19 he had sex with someone uder the legal age of consent. A problem yes, but is he in the same group as a 45 year old man crusing the play-ground with a "lost puppy" story? No. What he did was wrong, but I don't think he deserved to have to spend his life registering on lists, and, here, wind up murdered. The problem with mandatory sentencing, is that if an 18 year old senior has sex with his underage girlfriend at prom, he's on the list. It's also a quirk of law that if 16 is the legal age of consent, then a 50 year old man can have sex with her and not be on the list. Personally, in the second case I'm beating the hell out of the guy, probably with a baseball bat. Seriously, that's just plain sick. I don't know why but this has been coming up in the media lately, with the story of the baskeball player who went to jail for having "relations" with a minor, to Dr. Phil who had a story about a 45 year old and his 16 year old girlfriend (don't ask, Mrs. Blogger is a fan), and now this. When legislators judge from the assembly, it creates problems. I have to admit, I'm against capital punishment, but if true sex-offenders get killed, my day doesn't change. However, this list business is wrong. I don't have an answer, but I don't like this one. Extend jail time (I favor life without parole for rapists and child molesors-F@$k them, they got no role in society), extend parole, whatever, but allow for judges to determine individual cases, not politicians.

I will now douse myself with bleach.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Why start now?

Bush has never listened to his generals before, so it comes as no surprise that he's strongly endorsing Rummy, even with 6 retired generals, including 4 who served under Rummy in Iraq calling for him to step down + one Republican Senator.

All jokes aside, if 6 generals, knowing the negative impact on troop morale, citizen support, and positive impact of embolding the enemy, etc that coming out hard against the Secretary of Defense would have, still find it neccessary to go vocal on this, well, it makes me wonder how bad things have to be. If it were 6 extreme lefty dems, then I would tend to blow this off, but its not.

I also think it clearly shows that you can support the troops, want to succeed in Iraq, but still criticize the show. I believe Bush can fix this. But he will have to show the kind of courage and decisiveness he's lacked. Much like Linclon, he needs to make wholesale changes, promote quality, demote the incompetent, and get control of this. You can like someone and fire them. You can be a good friend and still do what's right for the nation. Lincoln took a beating when he changed generals in the middle of the Civil War, but it was the right move. Burns was getting clobbered, and Grant turned the war around.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Finding my religion

I thought this site was fascinating. I don't know the group sponsoring the site, or the group gathering the data, but the maps are cool. I'm a sucker for maps. They're my USA Today Graphs.

Through Being Cool

Word, 'tweens: Go get your own pop culture. Spending your lunchtimes, girls, singing "We Are Family" while the boys ask each other again and again "Aren't you a little short for a stormtrooper?" Blogger, is this what we won the Manner Banner for?!

Legitimate


This is what Hamas calls "legitimate". Again, is there a clever strategy at foot or are these just brutal killers who seek to destroy what they hate?

How can anyone support another penny for the Hamas government? I suggest the palestinians put their begging bowl away.

Lucas in Love


Clever spoof on Shakespeare in Love. Also, oddly believable.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Chinese Democracy

Some quick thoughts on China and it's Peaceful Rise slogan. While I believe its mostly true from a US stand-point, I would be very concerned if I was Taiwan. Or differently, China is not a threat to harm the US, but it does want Taiwan back. If Stalin is right that Iran is bolstered in its actions by the US being distracted in Iraq, China must surely feel the same way. Given our inaction in N. Korea, and the fact that China tests US loyalty toward Taiwan regularly, including just today, I think a move coming. At some point China will correctly guess that the US will not go to war with China over Taiwan, period. A President, and the American people will not risk a major confrontation, possible nuclear, with China over Taiwan. Furthermore, the US cannot afford sanctions, and is also compounded by the fact that they own a lot of our debt, and buy it as it comes avliable. They will point out that Hong Kong is doing fine under Chinese control, so Taiwan shouldn't be any different, but just as Hong Kong is under Chinese control, it is neccessary for Taiwan as well. This will give enough cover to a US president to allow re-possession.

Again, global politics is zero-sum. Other nations looking to rise, even peacefully, will test us, and when we're stretched thin, the tests will come faster. First there was N. Korea, now Iran, and my bet is China is coming. Part of me wonders how much China is controling these issues behind the scenes. The problem with answering the "are we stretched too thin" is that answering it with force only stretches us further. Re-raising the question, with more probablility of it being correct. If our actions are being manipulated so that others may grow we have to start changing the game. Arming Taiwan will firmly check China's ambitions in the region, place them under pressure, allow Taiwan to grow at China's expense, and get China to finally act on nuclear proliferation.

Friday, April 14, 2006

A rare quick hit


Here's the way I see the election shaping up.

Vote for the party that is self-destructing, or...
vote for the part that already has.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait to get into the booth.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Why trust matters

To further the Stalin's discussion about what to do about Iran, maybe the answer is find someone to trust. This article questions the about the immediacy of an Iranian nuke. Its something worth considering. My main source of information comes from the White House, a White House that was wildly wrong on just about every accusation and time-table established for the Iraq war. Does it make sense to trust them again? When the stakes are this high, I would like to be able to know who to trust. I can't trust Bush, and I have no idea what agenda these analysts may have. This the immeasurable part of the damage this administration has caused. With all the terror alerts, talks of mushroom clouds if I vote democrat, how gays will destroy America, and any number of boogiemen they've created, I just don't jump when they scream "look-out" anymore.

As far as Iran, on the surface it's another blustering US hating middle-east leader spouting off about how tough they are and how they're not afraid of the US. Is this more talk? If they were developing nukes, why be so brazen about it? Why not wait until after the first test? Is this more about looking tough than being tough? Are they baiting us? Certainly Chalabi and Curveball knew how to get the US to do their bidding in Iraq, what if Iranian leadership is attempting the same? Maybe they feel the best way to quell the dissidents is to have the US bomb Iran, uniting the country with the Mullah's and against the west.

If you can manipulate he powerful, you don't have to be powerful.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Another for the archives


The Bush/ Cheney regime that gave us gems like, "Mission Accomplished," "We will be greeted as liberators," and "The insurgency is in its last thoes," now gives us, "We have found the weapons of mass destruction."

The Washington Post article says the Pentagon knew two full days before Bush made that statement that it wasn't true. The good news is that they didn't keep this to themselves, they sent a report to Washington, the bad news is that it was ignored. Not only that, but the report was shelved while the administration continued to point to those trailers as evidence of WMD's, and as proof of justification for the war. There's a word for knowing something to be false but saying it anyway, I just can't think of it.

However, the White House is quick to respond. However, McClellans points bring up one biggie. McClellan said information for public reports from the CIA comes from many sources and takes time to vet." Which begs the question, if it "takes time to vet," and everyone knows this, why didn't the President give it time to vet? Why did he rush to make a statement? If someone give me information that takes time to vet, I don't go rushing to make a public pronoucement as strong as he did. That's just setting yourself up.

And some wonder why people are losing trust in W. If I had a friend that was repeatedly this wrong in business, I'm not so sure I'd invest in his next venture.

More tone deaf liberals

Yet another liberal has called the occupation of Iraq a mistake and calls for troop withdrawals.

“It was an enormous mistake for us to try to occupy that country after June of 2003. We have to pull back, and we have to recognize it.”

Newt Gingrich at a speach at the University of South Dakota

Traitor!

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

A Great Man Once Blogged...


The obvious outcome of the Iranian crisis was posted on this very Blog by this very Blogger some five months ago. Diplomacy only works when it is conducted between partners who both truly seek a compromised settlement. This has never been the case with Iran (or any other dictatorial regime). This is why diplomacy in these cases has always been a sad and pathetic farce. Now we are at the inevitable climax so what do we do now? Iran will have the bomb in a very short time. Is that result so unpleasant that extreme measures must be taken now? Or is it only an unpleasant result that we can manage effectively enough allowing us the luxury of merely tut-tutting our way through this along with the Russians and Chinese? I ask the gifted minds of Hyrdrablog to weigh in.

The Bush is burning

Bush's numbers hit a new low according to this poll, more numbers here. Yes, yes, Stalin, I know you don't believe polls. But I'm going to talk about this anyway, you can't stop me with your cynicism. A few things strike me about this poll, and what options Bush has. First, this low comes not after any particularly bad news. It seems to be a sign of gradual erosion which must be troubling to the White House. If he dipped on some event, the 3000th soldier dying in Iraq, for example, then that could be viewed as a dip, that would recover as the event passed. This is different. Also, the number of people who strongly disagree is more than twice the number of people who strongly agree, and greater than his net approval number. Its even more glaring if you look at the trends in "Strongly Approve" and "Strongly Dissaprove." At some point he falls off a cliff. Your seeing some of the fall out in the way his party is treating him, both on the ports deal, and in Specter calling for him to explain his roll in the leaks.

The problem is how to reverse this trend. In the past, the GOP found a new group to viciously attack to bolster numbers. Those who questioned Iraq, homosexuals, 75 year old lawyers, you get the picture. This seems to be the plan with illegal immigrants. But this group has some problems. One its not a small group like gays. The millions of legal hispanics are deeply connected to the illegal. They vote, they march, and they remember. They have the numbers to move elections, especially when the GOP/Dem balance is so close. Especially in Texas and Florida. Two, there's no easy constituency to back the attack. Religious groups are mostly in the lets not watch them suffer group, putting them at odds with House Republicans. Businesses want them, and hispanics are the fasted growing group in the country, and they further divide the religious base. Moderates don't care, and this concept of a wall is so distaseful that building it will destroy the GOP. This is the crux of the problem. Taking a harsh line on immigration appeals to the base that is largely the group that gives him his 38 percent rating. However, in order to improve that rating you have to reach out beyond that base, and ease the hard line against immigration, but doing so risks the base. If you fail, you lose the base, and your number goes down even more.

This immigration issue has wheels. A misstep here, or more accurately, more missteps here, and the GOP may lose the hispancs for years, while further consolodating the dem base. This may mean that this GOP nirvana over the last 8 years is a blip.

Favreorite


Since I'm an all powerful blogger and everything is my business, I'm weighing in on the Favre "Should I Stay or Should I Go Now" decision. Favre was one of my favorite players, no one looked like they enjoyed the game more, and he had the talent to hook you in as well. Going from that alone, I think he should call it a career. When the joy of the game is your hook, and you have to mull over this long if you want to play a final season, the answer is already clear, your heart just isn't in it. Green Bay is not a Superbowl contender. What's going to happen during that mid year 3 game losing streak? The media and the fans will pummel Favre, saying he should have retired, nailing him for lack of emotion, and he'll feel it. Granted there's always that storybook ending, where he leads a sub-par team deep into the playoffs, but I think that's a serious long-shot. Plus, as leader, he should exude optimism, not ambivilance.

That's my take. Retire, the fact that you have to think this hard is your answer.

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Reader Input

An astute reader suggested this quick quiz. Surpirse, I'm a Libertarian.

Friday, April 07, 2006

Its not a circle, its just round

Just to be clear, I don't think this Libby thing will hurt W. The dems just aren't able to capitalize on this type of information. It will hurt him with the libertarians, both of us, but that's about it.

But as I read this article two things come to mind. The White House's defense seems to be, Bush can't leak classified information because only he determines what that is. Sort of like Bush can't lie because if he says something its true. I love the Orwellian circularity of that. So when Bush says leaks are bad, and he doesn't like them, and he will find the leaker in the Plame investigation, well maybe he should call Charlie and O.J.

But my favorite is, "Because of the public debate that was going on and some of the wild accusations that were flying around at the time, we felt it was very much in the public interest that what information could be declassified be declassified, and that's exactly what we did." So in all the record amount of classified information this administration has created, the one, crucial, piece of information that would help eductate the american people, and cut through all the ambiguity as we prepared for war was a spy's name.

Just to recap, the President can decide when its ok to wirelessly tap all calls, even those that are solely domestic (this warrants its own entry), the right to ignore congressional mandates, is not bound by law, and can't disclose harmful secrets because only he can decide what's secret. Sort of sounds like W's not above the law because he is the law. Ahhh, this must be the democracy the founding fathers envisioned.

Born Again?

It looks like W may, just may, understand why his numbers are so bad. This administration has left conservatives behind on the one issue that everyone gets...government spending. Perhaps he has also tweaked a few civil libertarians with his Patriot Act and wire tapping (I'll allow the much more adept Mr. Blogger to address that), but that is not a constituency large enough to move poll numbers. Bush is down because conservatives are fed up. We could have elected John Kerry if we wanted dumb ideas with huge price tags. So maybe a light has gone on somewhere. Bush says he is going to uncap the veto pen if his spending cuts are not implemented. I so hope he means it. Because if he does and if sound bites of the shrill and unlikeable Nancy Pelozi calling the budget "immoral" are trumpeted by a proud media, the prodical base may just return...and bring some friends.

Come on, George. Make our day.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Give Us the Break


There is no doubt that W has been a big disappointment to conservatives who favor a smaller, less intrusive government. But on one issue he is dead on. Making the tax cuts permanent. We grew our way out of the last deficit and we'll grow our way out of this one as well. However, let me go on this meager record as saying that I'd prefer we spending cut our way out of the current deficit, but I don't see that happening under any administration.

Hollowed Out

Just anther example of how party not issue defines what happens in D.C. No GOP talk of First Amendment rights for a bill that the GOP President strongly supports. No talk of too much spending in politics by the Dems who appear to benefit most from this. The fact that both parties have switched places so soon after the McCain/Feingold bill because of who benefits only shows how brazen the hypocracy has become.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

"Limited?"

I believe SM called FISA an extremely limited tool. Maybe not. This WSJ aritcle shows otherwise. I highlighted some key points. I'm not saying this guy is a saint, nor that he's innocent. But reading this is chilling.


Volatile Formula
How Patriot Act
Helped Convict Man
In Baby-Food Ring
Mr. Jammal Faces 10 Years
After Terror-Probe Tapes
Are Used in Criminal Trial
A 14-Minute Rant Against U.S.
By JOHN D. MCKINNON
April 4, 2006; Page A1

Three months before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, police in Tempe, Ariz., began investigating information from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. suggesting that a local grocery wholesaler named Samih Jammal was part of an organized ring stealing baby formula from Wal-Mart stores and trucks.

The investigation proceeded uneventfully until shortly after 9/11 when it was turned over to a joint local and federal terrorism task force. Phoenix police, in a written report later provided to Mr. Jammal as part of his prosecution, said they had "confirmed" that he "had significant connections to terrorist organizations, including al Qaeda." At some point after that -- prosecutors won't say precisely when -- authorities got a warrant to tap Mr. Jammal's phone and bug his office.

It wasn't an ordinary warrant, the sort routinely authorized by judges in response to applications from police and prosecutors who want to eavesdrop to catch crooks. It was a national-security warrant authorized by the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, giving authorities much more leeway, and giving wiretap targets fewer rights.

Mr. Jammal, a 36-year-old U.S. citizen born in Lebanon, was never charged with any offense related to terrorism. Yet evidence collected in the FISA eavesdropping played a role in his conviction last April on federal charges focused on fencing stolen baby formula, for which he was sentenced to 10 years in prison.

His case sits on the fine line between the government's responsibility to go all-out to prevent terrorism and its duty to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens accused of crimes. It's a line that has blurred considerably since 9/11 and the 2001 passage of the Patriot Act. It allows authorities to use FISA wiretaps authorized by special courts not only to gather foreign intelligence but to investigate domestic crimes.

Mr. Jammal is appealing, contending that FISA evidence used against him was illegally obtained and crippled his defense. He says the charges against him were trumped up by a government determined to show progress in the war against terror. "It's baby formula of mass destruction here," he said at one pretrial hearing.

With an ordinary warrant for electronic surveillance, authorities must show probable cause that the target committed a crime and limit eavesdropping to conversations about crimes. They must also eventually notify those who were bugged (even if they aren't accused of a crime) and must give defendants complete access to the warrant application, court orders and any actual recordings.

To get a FISA warrant, in contrast, authorities need to persuade a federal judge that there is probable cause that the target is an agent of a foreign power such as a terrorist organization. For U.S. citizens, prosecutors also must show that some crime might be involved. Armed with such a warrant, authorities can eavesdrop on any conversation, regardless of whether it involves a crime. They can withhold from defendants the basis for issuing the warrant, hindering legal challenges to the FISA evidence. And they can restrict defendants' access to the classified transcripts and tapes, which makes it harder for the defense to parry the government's charges or mount its own case.


The FISA warrant in the Jammal case distinguishes it from the controversial warrantless wiretaps that President Bush authorized the National Security Agency to conduct in pursuit of terrorism.

Constitutional Question

Even with warrants, critics fear defendants' rights to a fair trial will be eroded, as authorities use intelligence-gathering techniques to pursue criminal cases. "If evidence is procured by methods that wouldn't stand up to the Fourth Amendment, the courts are going to have to stop it," said Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York, top Democrat on the House Judiciary subcommittee on the Constitution. Cases like Mr. Jammal's "should be challenged in court," he said. "That kind of thing shouldn't happen."

Andrew McCarthy, who prosecuted Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman on terror charges in New York, says the old dividing wall between foreign intelligence operations and domestic criminal investigations doesn't make sense in the fight against terrorism. "They usually commit an array of garden-variety crime in the course of trying to conduct terrorism operations," [Thus everything is fair game-Ed] says Mr. McCarthy, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based group that studies national security issues. That means investigating crimes and gathering intelligence through plea bargains and other techniques can be an important tool.

Paul Charlton, the U.S. attorney for Arizona whose office brought the case against Mr. Jammal, says in an interview that existing procedures properly balance the rights of defendants with the government's need to maintain secrecy to protect national security. He notes that, as in all FISA cases, a federal judge approved the initial application for the Jammal warrant privately. Prosecutors were "scrupulous" about avoiding suggestions at trial that Mr. Jammal was linked to terrorism, he adds, trying to ensure he got a fair trial.

Prior to passage of the Patriot Act, court interpretations required that the "primary" purpose of a FISA warrant had to be gathering foreign intelligence. The Patriot Act, passed in October 2001, broadened the rules so that intelligence gathering need only be a "significant" purpose of wiretapping. Evidence obtained under FISA warrants has been used in a handful of cases involving charges not directly related to terrorism, including at least one immigration proceeding.

Mr. Jammal's case shows how much the legal environment changes when FISA wiretaps enter the picture in criminal cases. His first two court-appointed lawyers stepped down in part because the secret tapes required them to get security clearance. Even with such clearance, however, they wouldn't be able to discuss the tapes with their client. His third lawyer, who did get clearance, was able to review only translated summaries, not transcripts, of selected wiretapped conversations. At trial, the government played the jury a recording made under the FISA warrant that proved damaging to Mr. Jammal: a rambling 14-minute diatribe in which he rails against the U.S. government in Arabic, and talks about fleeing to Lebanon if officials came after him for unpaid taxes.

The case against Mr. Jammal began in June 2001 when Wal-Mart investigators, frustrated by a rash of baby-formula thefts, gave Tempe police detective Tom O'Brien information about a recent attempted theft in Midland, Texas. For reasons that aren't clear, that led to a police stakeout outside Mr. Jammal's business, located in a warehouse complex in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe. Checks of license plates revealed people with shoplifting records showing up to do business with Mr. Jammal.

Sent to U.S. for College

Mr. Jammal grew up in Lebanon and Kuwait. His father owned fruit and vegetable export firms, a farm, a small phone company and a school, according to Mr. Jammal. The family was prosperous enough to send Mr. Jammal to the U.S. in 1988 to study at West Virginia's Marshall University, named after the nation's first chief justice, John Marshall. Wiry and athletic, Mr. Jammal played for a while on the school's soccer team. The family businesses suffered in the early 1990s, and Mr. Jammal began working odd jobs to put himself through school, according to Mr. Jammal's wife, Gretchen, who grew up in Ohio and whom he met while attending Marshall. After college, Mr. Jammal gravitated toward the business of selling baby-formula on the advice of a friend, and moved to Arizona starting in 1994 to live near a cousin and savor the warmer weather.

Mr. Jammal joined a number of other entrepreneurs -- some of Middle Eastern origin -- who were buying up large quantities of formula at big chain stores, which often sold it as a loss leader. The brokers then sold to wholesalers who, in turn, resold to smaller retailers, who often served low-income families participating in federal food-aid programs. None of this is illegal, although some manufacturers raised concerns about the practice. Taking baby formula out of the original packages and repackaging for resale can be a crime, however. In 1998, Mr. Jammal pleaded guilty to a single charge of improper repackaging of baby formula. He got three years' probation and a $1,000 fine.

Big retailers and formula manufacturers sought to choke off the gray market in baby formula -- for instance, by limiting the amount of formula that could be purchased off-the-shelf at one time. Still, Mr. Jammal's business, Jamal Trading Co., thrived. He says he took advantage of loss leaders at big-box stores and also distributed cereals, juices, diapers and other grocery items. He opened several small retail stores in Arizona. In May 2003, unaware that he had been secretly indicted, he moved his family into a $550,000 suburban home in Mesa, Ariz., where he kept a dozen sheep and goats.

Meanwhile, federal authorities say they got interested in Mr. Jammal in October 2001 when they happened to overhear him on a Drug Enforcement Agency wiretap of Osamah Yacoub, an immigrant from Jerusalem who was living in Houston. The two were talking about the baby-formula business, Mr. Charlton, the U.S. attorney said. Mr. Yacoub later pleaded guilty to a charge related to methamphetamine trafficking and cooperated with the government in its prosecution of Mr. Jammal.

Around the same time, according to a Phoenix police affidavit, a confidential informant told authorities that Mr. Jammal was trying to "facilitate the release of a non-U.S. citizen who was in federal custody" -- Malek Seif -- and smuggle him to Mexico. Mr. Seif later pleaded guilty to falsifying immigration and Social Security records. Through one of his appeal lawyers, Mr. Jammal said the story is not true. "Someone made it up," said the lawyer, Scott MacPherson.

A 9/11 Hijacker at Mosque

Federal authorities won't say exactly what led to Mr. Jammal's case being turned over to the terrorism task force. Mr. Jammal suspects one factor was that he and Mr. Seif attended a Tempe mosque where one of the 9/11 hijackers worshipped briefly -- Hani Hanjour, a Saudi Arabian who was aboard the American Airlines jet that crashed into the Pentagon. Mr. Jammal, who says he has no sympathies with terrorism, says he expressed skepticism about Mr. Hanjour's culpability when Federal Bureau of Investigation agents came to the mosque shortly after 9/11.

Beginning in December 2001, authorities devised a sting aimed at Mr. Jammal and his associates. Mead Johnson, a unit of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and maker of the Enfamil brand, gave police posing as middlemen baby formula to sell to Jamal Trading Co., representing it as stolen. Mr. Jammal didn't buy formula directly in the sting, and typically insisted that associates get signed statements attesting that any formula they bought wasn't stolen.

But police did sell 1,400 cases from the back of a Wal-Mart truck to Mr. Jammal's partner in several businesses, an Egyptian-born businessman named Tamer Swailem, in May 2002. Testifying against Mr. Jammal, Mr. Swailem said he expressed misgivings to Mr. Jammal about buying the formula in a cellphone conversation. "It didn't feel right....[but] finally we decided just to go ahead and have him [the agent] sign the paper," Mr. Swailem said. Mr. Jammal, who didn't testify at this trial, says in an interview that he told Mr. Swailem to "get the hell out" if he believed the formula in the truck was stolen.

In March 2003, Mr. Jammal was indicted secretly. Although the government refuses to say when it tapped Mr. Jammal's phones and bugged his office under the FISA warrant, summaries of about 20 conversations introduced in criminal proceedings against Mr. Jammal date from May and June 2003.

Clifford Fishman, a Catholic University law professor who has studied wiretap laws, says using FISA-authorized wiretaps to bolster an already pending criminal case "would be a clear misuse of the law." A spokeswoman for Mr. Charlton, the prosecutor, said that the "basis for the FISA intercept was unrelated to [Mr. Jammal's] involvement in organized retail theft," adding that it was conducted by a separate investigative team. She said officials can't reveal reasons for seeking the FISA warrant.

Mr. Jammal was arrested in July 2003, and charged with eight felony counts including interstate transportation of stolen property. The government now says that of the 27 defendants in the case, 22 were arrested; 18 pleaded guilty and four of them so far have been deported, while others are pending deportation; and four others including Mr. Jammal were convicted at trial.

Federal prosecutors used declassified conversations recorded under the FISA warrants to argue successfully that he should be jailed awaiting trial. They said his expressed interest in running for the Lebanese parliament proved that he had no strong ties to the U.S.

As Mr. Jammal's trial approached, the FISA-authorized wiretaps also posed difficulties for his court-appointed lawyer, Michael Reeves. The government insisted that Mr. Reeves obtain security clearance to examine classified evidence in the case and agree not to talk about the evidence with anyone, even his client. Mr. Reeves's doubts deepened when he got a look at the security-clearance application. Under penalty of perjury, it asked detailed information "like 'Have you ever missed a mortgage payment?' " Mr. Reeves recalls. "It made me nervous."

Ashcroft Weighed In

While Mr. Reeves pondered the matter, he asked the court to order the government either to reveal the basis for issuing the FISA warrant so he could challenge its legality or bar the evidence altogether. The government countered with an affidavit from then-Attorney General John Ashcroft who said telling defense lawyers why the FISA warrant was issued "would harm the national security." [And that was that-Ed]The federal trial judge, Frederick J. Martone, sided with the government.

Judge Martone allowed Mr. Reeves to withdraw and appointed Michael Smith of Mesa to take his place. But he, too, eventually pulled out, arguing that serving as an effective advocate for Mr. Jammal meant sharing the FISA evidence with his client -- something that would expose Mr. Smith to prosecution.

In October 2004, Judge Martone named Robert Kavanagh, a former Phoenix police officer, to represent Mr. Jammal. Mr. Jammal says Mr. Kavanagh inherited from the previous lawyers only a few CD's -- apparently a small portion of the surveillance videos that were made outside his client's warehouse -- plus a largely inaudible tape recording of one of the FISA conversations. With time running out and no more delays possible before the trial, Mr. Kavanagh, who had obtained a security clearance, reviewed classified summaries of some wiretapped conversations, prepared by FBI translators and agents. But he says he was unable to review many conversations.

The government was free to offer any declassified FISA-obtained evidence in its case against Mr. Jammal, and the defense also could use that material. Federal rules require prosecutors to turn over any evidence that might help the defense. Government lawyers didn't go through all the tapes, many of which recorded conversations in Arabic, but "reviewed all translated summaries of the FISA intercepts and found no exculpatory evidence," the U.S. attorney says.

At one point during the trial, Judge Martone questioned how the government could fulfill its obligation to turn over material favorable to the defense. "There isn't any lawyer who's making this judgment," the judge complained during one conference with lawyers, a transcript shows. But he allowed the government to use FISA-gathered evidence anyhow.

Seeking Help From Tapes

Mr. Jammal insists a review of the voluminous, classified FISA evidence would show that he warned would-be sellers that he would not accept stolen property [But we'll never know-Ed]. He also says that the tapes could have helped undercut the testimony of former associates who agreed to plea bargains and testified against him. Mr. Charlton, the U.S. attorney, counters that seven witnesses testified to Mr. Jammal's guilt. The government introduced evidence, for example, that Mr. Jammal was told by an associate that at least one supplier was stealing. Prosecutors also argued that Mr. Jammal should have known from the prices he was paying that he was buying stolen goods.

Over defense objections, the prosecution played for the jury a conversation recorded under the FISA warrant -- Mr. Jammal's 14-minute rant from June 26, 2003, about his sense that the government was after him, even though he didn't know he'd already been indicted [The Feds get to pick and choose evidence now-Ed].

"I'm trying to establish a business in Lebanon, because I know 80% to 90% that the day will come when the American government is going to come and ask me for taxes," he said, according to a translation presented in court. "OK, that's why, when that day comes, I'll tell them, 'F- you!' Then take everything, I'll pick up everything and go to Lebanon."

Jurors took six hours to convict Mr. Jammal and other defendants on most of the charges. A few days before his sentencing hearing in October, Mr. Jammal fired off a 43-page letter to civil-rights groups, hoping to generate interest in his appeal, and copied Judge Martone. "I fail to see how my conversation concerning the baby formula business could qualify as 'foreign intelligence,' " he wrote.

Monday, April 03, 2006

The Show

Saturday, April 01, 2006

Heat Vision and Jack

Friday, March 31, 2006

Well I'm glad the country came in second.

Couple of points from this article on immigration.

Tom Tancredo of Colorado: "I wish he'd think about the party and of course I also wish he'd think about the country." This couldn't state my problem with parties any better.

"The elite class in America is becoming a ruling class and they've made enough money by hiring cheap illegal labor that they think they also have some kind of a right to cheap servants to manicure their nails and their lawn, for example.

Steve King of Iowa, "So this ruling class, this new ruling class of America, is expanding a servant class in America at the expense of the middle class of America, the blue collar of America that used to be able to punch a time clock, buy a modest house and raise their families. ... Those young people are cut out of this process."

Wait, is this the GOP inciting class warfare? I thought one of the big GOP rallying cry against the dems was that the dems are always using class as a weapon. If the GOP is using the wildly successful democratic strategies, well, you just get the feeling that the wheels are coming off. It just good for the GOP that their competition is so inept. But if they keep stealing the good stuff, they may find themselves equal sooner rather than later.

Of Course It's a Conspiracy


Everyone knows we bombed our own capital, took down our own twin towers, flooded our own people out of New Orleans, conspired against our own Bills in four super bowls and blew up our own Challenger. Our country is so far ahead of every other country that our leaders have decided the only way to make things at least somewhat competitive (and therefore more fun) is to start sabotaging our own progress. That’s why Bill Clinton had to be talked into humiliating himself and our country’s highest office, why Old Man Bush was convinced to lie about not raising taxes and why W agreed to tack on a ridiculously expensive prescription drug benefit to an already unaffordable program. The Keep It Close initiative probably started with Nixon, but no one can be sure. I’ve been sending suggestions to them for years. I’ve recommended letting the DMV run our hospitals (to reduce our population advantage), putting John Kerry in charge of the Pentagon (to eliminate our military advantage), and leaving the public school system just as it is (to eliminate our education advantage). With hard work and creative problem solving we may even be able to reduce our huge cultural lead over France within a millennium!

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Sporting News

Interesting article on sports that has implications to broader ideas. Schoenfield argues that a "cap" on spending in sports isn't all its cracked up to be. Using baseball as an example he compares MLB to the NFL and the NBA to get an idea of how competitive the various leagues are. Going in you would assume that MLB would be the least competitive because there is such a drastic gap between the rich and poor teams. His quick study shows otherwise. Now this is not a deep study with rigorous protocols, but it is an interesting thesis with some equally interesting preliminary results. The gist of it is that the messing with the market doesn't make things better. In business, the difference between any two companies is the quality of management across all levels. Makes sense that the same applies in sports.

Rather than fantasy sports, I like to dabble in fantasy league ownership. If you want to improve the game do the following. One, set a minimum number of wins a team has to have to qualify for revenue sharing. Two, only pay players for wins. Pay them a lot, but only give them a check if their team wins. Three, dump the draft. The last one is huge as I love the draft. But every league would be better if it didn't exist. Finally, and I know no league has control over this, but pay college athletes. With all of the above, games would be more competitive, exciting, and entertaining.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

A move towards elections


Colorado state senator Ken Gordon is submitting a bill that would allot Colorado's electoral college votes to the presidential candidate that recieved the most popular votes nation-wide. It comes with a clause that it only takes effect if states representing 270 electoral votes, a majority, join the compact. I like it. It's not as dramatic as getting rid of the electoral college, which I favor, but its a step in the right direction. The full plan from the group pushing it here.

Monday, March 27, 2006

A new buddy flick

Picture this, Unknown Blogger and Bush on the same team. Only in Hollywood right? Nope, I'm solidly with Bush on his guest worker program. Part of me thinks he's going to blow it with me, you know, more pretty words followed by actions that totally go against what he's set up, but like a moth to the flame, I'm drawn to his stance on this issue. My basic position is make work easy, make citizenship hard. Bush has a fight on his hands as the GOP wants to focus on keeping people out, a nearly impossible task that will only lead to more invasive laws. Not that a giant wall isn't invasive. How far we've come from Reagan saying "Tear down this wall!" Now its, "build this wall!" At least the Senate doesn't seem to be taking the insane wall thing up. The house also wanted to make it illegal to help people in need. Again, the Senate seems to be using some sense here. From the people, I love Cardinal Roger Mahoney. The man who was prepared to tell his priests to "violate the law banning humanitarian assistance, if it passed."

I don't understand this new immigration policy push. Not from an economic position. Not from a social position. And not from a humanitarian/moral position. I'm looking to Stalin to explain all this to me.

Maybe Putin had Krytonite in his pocket

Looks like Bush may have read the signs wrong when he peered into Putins soul.

The Emperor's new groove

Bush signs the anti-torture law, then says it doesn't apply to him. Bush signs the USA PATRIOT Act renewal, but says the restrictions don't apply to him. Anyone detect a pattern?

Just to speed things up on the blog.

Stalin: Regan, Bush I, and Clinton all did the same things.

UBlo: I know, I know, the "if people have done it in the past, it must be ok now line of thought." Well, no president has done it to this extent, not when its this serious, and finally, it still doesn't make it right.

Stalin: We're at war, he's using his "Commander in Chief" authority.

UBlo: I know, I know, your unshakable trust in a man you don't know. Well, the Afganistan and Iraq wars are over. Wars are between states, and the officials of both states that we went to war against are no longer in power. This is more like post V-J Day Japan. Congress never declared "War" on terrorism, thus the President, any President, doesn't have the authority he's taken. Three branches. Kind of the cornerstone of our leadership model. The problem is when one party controls all three branches, no branch wants to step on the other's toes. Party first, country second.

Stalin: Your becoming a paranoid freak.

Ublo: You're just saying that because of the nanobots THEY placed in your brain!

Have OJ's people call Charlie's people.

Charlie Sheen thinks he has the real answers to the 9/11 attack. I think the greatest TV show of all time would be a reality series where Charlie and OJ team up to find a) Niclole's real killers, and b) uncover the real story of 9/11. Somebody has to make this happen. Please.

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Bizarro world continues


SCOTUS returns a solid conservative ruling from the liberal side, conservatives dissent. Solid commentary, as usual, from SCOTUSBlog. Actual opinions in Georgia v. Randolph, here.

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Separation Anxiety

Long time readers of this blog know that I'm no fan of the deficit. In thinking through how to get it down, I came up with a source. Get rid of the tax-excemption for churches. Several reasons for this.

One, while the origin lies in the "separation" clause, it actually brings the church closer to the government. Two reasons. One, it amounts to a massive subsidy to churches, not just say the Roman Catholic Church, but any church with three parishoners and a board. And it applies to all things the church touches, cars, real estate, stocks, everyting. So churches are on the public dole, and the IRS knows this. Which leads to demonstration two of the lack of separation. The government uses the tax-excemption to control the churches. Here is one example.

Two, the real-world application is also counter-intuitive. Its not like churches don't use fire, police, roads, millitary protection, etc, so why don't they have to pay for them. Furthermore, why do I have to support all churches, not just the one I attend? Why should I be forced to support Scientology, or if I'm Muslim, why does the government take money from me to support the local Synagogue? Why am I forced to support James Dobson?

I think the better thing is to get rid of the excemption. Let those that follow a church support that church. Get rid of the scammers, get rid of the subsidy, help balance the budget, all in one fell swoop.

See you in hell...

Hotlantis!


Monday, March 20, 2006

She Blinded Me With...


If you believe the article, then there is a 50% chance that it's wrong. If you don't believe the article, then the odds that you're wrong go up. I've said it before and I'll say it again...if you want good science, stick with Mr. Wizard.

Saturday, March 18, 2006

Friday, March 17, 2006

I don't know Stalin, polls like this are very, very accurate

Was reading an article about a federal court overturning an EPA decision to give power plants the ability ot circumvent the need to increase pollutant controls if they spend less than 20% of the plants worth on upgrades (currently, just about any upgrade triggers the need to add polutant fighting measures). Anyway, I like the ruling, lots of reasons, but mostly because its a very, very stupid allowance. There's no base line value, so if you add 20% value in one year, then next year your allowed to spend 20% of the new combined value. Year one on an $100 plant, you can spend $20. Year two, you can spend $24 (20% of $120), etc. They get to spend 20% of an ever increasing number. Bad wording, blatent attempt to circumvent the Clean Air Act. I agree with the court, if you want to get rid of the Clean Air Act, get congress to vote it down. Scalia says this all the time, and he's right.

Anyway, you can also take an interactive poll. At least this poll acknowledges that its "not scientific" at the bottom, but the wording on this was precious. Why, yes I do think money is more important than saving lives. Awesome. I can't figure out how to make the poll appear here, so you're going to have to see it for yourselves. I can't hold your hand through life anymore.

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Something about a mirror

Near the end of an article where Bush says, "We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran," (which I agree) there was this quote about China. "China's leaders must realize, however, that they cannot stay on this peaceful path while holding on to old ways of thinking and acting that exacerbate concerns throughout the region and the world," Bush wrote. He said these "old ways" include enlarging China's military in a non-transparent way, expanding trade, yet seeking to direct markets rather than opening them up, and supporting energy-rich nations without regard to their misrule or misbehavior at home or abroad. Which got me thinking. If you substituted "China" for "US" how would that list differ...

Enlarging US' military in a non-transparent way...check. No need to elaborate here.

Expanding trade, yet seeking to direct markets rather than opening them up...check. The US has repeatedly broken off multi-lateral free trade talks in favor of one-on-one trade talks with emerging markets so as to allow the US to keep its barriers up, while bringing theirs down.

Supporting energy-rich nations without regard to their misrule or misbehavior at home or abroad...check. I'm guessing holding hands with a Saudi dictator counts here.

Now for the inflametory part. Perhaps my biggest concern for this country is that more and more, by most any objective level, our peer group sucks. This is not just a Bush problem, it goes back before him, (Clinton jumps to mind) but he's on point now. Rather than rise above the other nations and act as a beacon, we're increasingly wallowing in the same mud. Its like we've lost our vision, drive and trust in the experiment that is America. The hypocracy is going to catch up with us, both internally and externally.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Dig this

Bush wants to hire the the former head of Boston's Big Dig project to be the new head of the Federal Highway Administration. That's right folks, the guy who headed up the nightmare that is and was the Big Dig is now the top choice to run our highways. Seriously, I think that Bush just picks the guys with the worst reputations, not bad reps, not "well he could've done better" reps, but the true disasters to run things. I don't know if its because he feels like these types will have unquestioned loyalty to him because he plucked them out of the sewers that their careers became after thier mistakes, or if he just wants to feel superior to everyone, or if its some kind of weird dare. But this guy, Capka has to be nuclear. Just stay away from him. I'm sorry, but some things are just career enders. Give him a lesser job as a reward for his 30 years of service, fine, but why go near the guy now?

I have to give Kerry credit, his quote, "I'm afraid Richard Capka could be the Brownie of highways." is pretty solid for a Democrat, and may be the quote that buries Capka. I mean, if Kerry gets the zinger, you know you have problems.

Stick a fork in him, Chef is done


Isaac Hayes is leaving the Comedy Central cartoon "South Park." Up front, I've never seen an episode of South Park, but I do appreciate the clips I've seen. What gave me pause was Hayes' reason, "There is a place in this world for satire, but there is a time when satire ends and intolerance and bigotry towards religious beliefs of others begins...Religious beliefs are sacred to people, and at all times should be respected and honored, as a civil rights activist of the past 40 years, I cannot support a show that disrespects those beliefs and practices."

I think what he meant was "I can't support a show that makes fun of MY beliefs," as South Park has a long history of satirising Christianity, and that never bugged him. Also, I saw a clip of the episode in question, and thought it was brilliant. Co-Creator Matt Stone agrees with me on Hayes' hipocracy, "(We) never heard a peep out of Isaac in any way until we did Scientology. He wants a different standard for religions other than his own, and to me, that is where intolerance and bigotry begin."

Hayes isn't the first person to laugh at others but get offended when it comes back at him, and he won't be the last.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

My Prescription for Health Costs

Just read that Sen. Frist proposed a two year moratorium on drug advertising saying "saying commercials drive up health care costs." Now this is not a dig on Frist, (I'm in a good mood so I won't ask Stalin to defend yet antoher GOPer interfering with the free market) but his comments did get me thinking. Why would advertising neccessarily drive up costs? Shouldn't the democratization of information drive down cost? The more people know about their choices the better. I've read that the increase comes from patients asking about drugs, and Dr.'s prescribing them, even if its not ideal or needed, but that's a problem with Dr.'s not the market. A patient should be able to say, "Hey I heard about the drug "Stalimone," I need something that makes me obtuse, condensending, and unable to process new, divergent information." To which the Dr. can say, "While the drug "Stalimone" does bring peace because you don't have to worry about thinking, its not right for you, so I'm sorry, but no." But what is missing from the ads, and this is fairly unique, is any price info. That's the key. I know that most people are insured and don't really care about costs, but the only way for a free market to work in health-care is to start educating people on price.

So here's my plan. This is not a dramatic, "now that this happened all is well" type of plan, but it lays the foundation. Much like no matter how good the lose weight now ads are, you still only lose weight gradually, and with work. first, mandate that drug ads have an equivilant to a MSRP. This begins the training on cost. Training that is neccessary if we are ever to get a handle on rising health-care costs. Then also mandate that Dr.'s must post prices, give estimates, and show total billing before any work is done. If my mechanic must tell me how much a new transmission is going to cost so should my Dr. Then I can begin to place medical services on some sort of price line. It's easier to shop around, and I will be better prepared to pay my own way, a must if a free market is ever to take hold here. As it stands, medicine is like a former communist econonmy. The consumers have no idea what stuff should cost, or can cost. Open up pricing to us, and prices will come down. They always do.

Free prices to the masses, free prices to the masses, free prices to the masses*

*I need to work on my chant.

HuG TV

Who else thought HGTV was for homosexuals until they bought a home? Now I simply can't get enough. UBlo, stay out of those dark, disappointing theatres and put some real "real" in your reality TV. Soon all your treatments will be window treatments!

Monday, March 13, 2006

Movies and Me

Mrs. Blogger and I went to see some movies. Here's the quick review.

"Date Movie" utterly terrible (as roughly expected-but we had a sitter and saw all the other movies at the theater-I wonder how much of Hollywoods box office comes is owed to sitters?). And yes, the movie screams Caveat Emptor, but I actually felt bad for Alison Hannigan because she seems nice enough but she should definitley fire her agent. This was a "career destroying" type bad movie.

"Ultraviolet" Mrs. Blogger did not like it, I loved it. Looked and felt like a comic book, which makes sense as its based on one. Even had scenes where Milla Javionichidghech's nose was blurry, which I think was done on purpose to make her look more like a drawn figure, it just bugged the wife. Solid actions scenes, and a very comic book plot (good or bad depending). I don't know the book so I can't vouch for how well it held to the book.

But Date movie got me thinking. Yes I expected a bad movie, but why would a studio put one this bad out? While it may recoup some of the investment, it must hurt brand name. Then it hit me, no one cares about which studio put the movie out. I can't name the studio of any movie I've seen, whether I loved it or hated it. So there's no reputational damage to the studio (there are direct risks, put out enough movies that don't make back the investment and you go under, for example). So Fox can put junk out because I'll never think before I see a movie "Oh, is this a Fox movie? I don't like them since I saw Date Movie (had to look that up). I'll shy away from actors and directors, but studio...means nothing to me. Its not like an automanufacturer. Ask anyone who made the Mustang II and they'll say "Ford" and Ford suffered because of bombs like that. Its an interesting dynamic. The studios get the profits, but don't take the same risks as actors, directors, or even writers. One bomb (see Alyson Hannigan above) and your career could be over, yet studio's can release bomb after bomb, becasue no one really associates movies with the studio's. Maybe it hurts within the industry, Fox has a harder time attracting A list actors and directors due to bombs, that I don't know. But it doesn't seem like the consumer cares, which I find interesting.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Flat out the right thing to do

WSJ (I know, I know, I'll post the article in the comments section) has an article about taxes today. Longtime fans of this blog know I'm a big fan of the flat tax. Bleeding heart McLieberman (I'm sorry Mc, please come back) says that the flat tax only helps the rich.

Key quotes from the article, "Nearly a million taxpayers hurt themselves in a single year by taking the standard deduction, even though they could have paid an average of nearly $500 less in taxes each had they itemized."

And, "Overall, as many as 2.2 million tax filers, representing roughly 2% of the total, may have paid nearly a billion dollars more than they needed to in taxes, an average of $438 per return, because of failing to itemize, according to the GAO study."

One thing you can bet is that these mistakes are made by folks on the lower end of the income scale as the higher you go, the more likely you are to get professional help.

Bottom line, a flat-tax democratizes the tax process. Its progressive by the fact that everyone gets the benefits, and it rids the current system of the implied penalty paid by the poor because they don't understand and take advantage of all the tax-deductions.

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

When's an accomplice not an accomplice?

Big news in SD is the passing of the anti-abortion bill. No need to go too far into this as it is a long way from reality as it breaks current law. But I do have this to say...
One, I didn't know the states could pass a law that obviously breaks US Federal Law. I think that's cool. I get that the whole thing is just a ploy to get it in front of the Supreme Court, but I just didn't know you could do that.
Two, a lots been made about the no rape/incest exemption, but to me it makes sense in the scope of the argument.
Three, they did keep a "health of the mother" clause. Good move, this is where the partial birth abortion ban errs.
Four, for some reason it always makes me snicker to read that Planned Parenthood operates the only abortion clinic in the state. I get that there are like 27 people in the SD, but some cities have more than one clinic per block, much less one for the whole state. Clearly not a big demand in SD.
Five, leaving the ability for Dr's to prescribe drugs before pregnancy is confirmed seems like a biiig loophole. Woman: "Dr. I'm scared I'm pregnant. I don't want to be." Dr: "Here, take these and come back in a week and we'll take a look."
Six, and most interestingly. While any Dr. performing an abortion faces five years in the slammer, the mother cannot be charged. How does that work? Regardless of anything else, I think this is a stupid law because of that little gem. Seriously, what's the thinking there? How is the mother not culpable? If its a crime, surely she's the prime mover/suspect. It's not like Dr's are trolling the streets trying to convince unsuspecting women to have an abortion. This is a truely bizzare clause. It strikes me as "my daughter may have done wrong by getting an abortion, but I don't want her going to jail. But abortion is wrong, and we have to do something. I know, let's nail the Drs." It's either a crime or it isn't, jail everyone involved, or jail no one.

Monday, March 06, 2006

Ad Out of Hell

Pour your sugar on me...

The WSJ has hit upon one of my pet issues (when you have as many as I do, its inevitable), the sugar subsidy. I don't know if they give their op-eds away. Let me know and I will post the article in the comments section.

Brief summary, subsidy bad, cost three jobs for every job saved, increase negative trade balance, etc. This is a good time to end it because of a spike in world sugar prices.

Won't happen.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Note to all clinically depressed 40 year old asthmatics, WE WANT YOU!


A WSJ report on new training "techniques" in the Army. I'll copy the whole article in the comments section.

As noted in a previous thread, recruitment is a key indicator of support in Iraq, and I belive an indicator in confidence in the government as a whole. The Army increased its minimum age to 40(after raising it from 30 to 35 about a year ago) plus this "softer, gentler" approach to basic training outlined in the liberal WSJ shows how difficult recuitment is these days.

Also, as an interesting historical comparison. One thing all the great empires had in common before they began their descent was that the quality of the infantry began to decline. Rome handled this by having civilan and professional units (but this move was a harbinger of the end), and the mighty Spartan's did the same after the Pelopennisian War.

Speaking of Spartans...just to be clear, the US has made the decision that 40 year old's who need inhalers and medication to treat depression are superior soldiers to perfectly healthy adults who happen to be homosexual.

Actually, I do hope the Army keeps concise records of those in these new classes. One would expect a higher mortality rate among these recruits, or this may show that the Army's harsher methods were uneccessary.

Friday, March 03, 2006

You too can be a terrorist suspect

Besides wanting to know if your talking to terrorist, the DOHS also wants to know why your paying off your credit cards. Fun reading for you "this law won't creep" proponents out there.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Interesting poll

In the first poll I've seen directly focused on troops, Zogby has some interesting results.

Taken as a group, 72% of troops in Iraq want a withdrawl in 12 months. By branch, guardsmen want out now at about 75%, while only 15% of Marnies feel that way, but 58% of Marines back the 12 month idea. This makes sense to me. Guardsmen and Reserves signed on for a weekend a month and two weeks a year, not extended duty abroad. I wonder if this contributes to the "I know a soldier in Iraq who has high/low morale" conversations we've all heard. If your guy is a guardsman, morale is probably low, if he's a marine, probably high.

I thought the good news was that most feel like they have adequate armor.

However, I thought the answers as far as why we're their were very interesting.
"The wide-ranging poll also shows that 58% of those serving in country say the U.S. mission in Iraq is clear in their minds, while 42% said it is either somewhat or very unclear to them, that they have no understanding of it at all, or are unsure. While 85% said the U.S. mission is mainly “to retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9-11 attacks,” 77% said they also believe the main or a major reason for the war was “to stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq.”

“Ninety-three percent said that removing weapons of mass destruction is not a reason for U.S. troops being there,” said Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International. “Instead, that initial rationale went by the wayside and, in the minds of 68% of the troops, the real mission became to remove Saddam Hussein.” Just 24% said that “establishing a democracy that can be a model for the Arab World" was the main or a major reason for the war. Only small percentages see the mission there as securing oil supplies (11%) or to provide long-term bases for US troops in the region (6%)."

Seems very discombobulated to me. More than 58% of the troops should have a clear understanding of why they're fighting. I don't know if this is a failure of leadership, or if it reflects the constantly shifting rataionale we're getting here in the states. When only 6 in 10 troops have a clear goal in mind, right or wrong (and reading the reasons, its entirely possible that each of the 6 has a different "clear" objective) it sounds more like a mercenary army than a democratic one. In any case, the administrations latest reason, "to build a democracy in the Middle East," doesn't seem to be connecting with the troops.

This clearly isn't the be-all end-all to understanding the troops, but it is interesting.

My new favorite quote.

Proving that he never read the very constitution he swore to uphold, nor did he pay attention during his High School history class.

"Civil liberties do not mean much when you are dead," Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Kentucky, told the Senate.

I can imagine Jimmy on a battlefield.

Captain Kelso: Jimmy, we have to hold this hill and defend the flag.
Pvt. Bunning: The flag don't mean much when you're dead! I'm outta here.

And yes, I'm officially calling Jim Bunning a coward. I don't see how he can send troops to war to defend America, when he himself admits that American ideals don't mean much. When I think of the absolute disparity between the courage of the founding fathers and the drivel we have today it makes me want to cry. Can you imagine this jackass at the Continental Congress? Would he have signed the Declaration of Independence?

The story is about the Patriot Act (I won't bore longtime readers-hee hee with another long diatribe against this act). However (couldn't resist), everytime I read a Patriot Act piece I wonder...if everyone expects things to return to normal once this "war on terror" is over, especially our own Stalin "Sweetly Naive" Malone, why such stong a desire by the White House to make the provisions permanant? Why not have sunset provisions that need to be renewed? There's a gap to the argument that I just don't understand.