In other news, the sky is blue.

A new report "breaks" the news that blacks are jailed at a higher rate than whites for drug offenses.

Here's a quick tip to the GOP heading into election season. For all your talk about how you should "really" be the party of the African-American community, you will never, ever be trusted by the black community because of your stubborn insistence that the "War" on drugs is good for America. Why would blacks ever trust you as long as you're jailing them at global record rates for an arbitrary crime?*

African-American distrust of the GOP is one of the easiest political ties to understand.


*Yes, I know that Dems are equally guilty in ruining millions of lives for no logically consistent reason, but the GOP owns the "War" on Drugs issue in the minds of most Americans. The GOP benefits greatly from the "tough on crime" reputation, and here they get hurt by it.

Gambling and "the Market"

Big controversy in the NBA as one of their refs, Tim Donaghy is accused of fixing games, and no that doesn't mean helping to bring back the mid-range jumper. He's accused of working with Mafia types to skew the the points scored in games, specifically effecting the over/under line.

But what I find more interesting is that he was able to pull this off. According to ESPN,

research into Donaghy's last two seasons supports Bell's claims. In the 66 games Donaghy refereed in the 2005-06 season, the two teams in his games combined to score an average of 196.8 points. The average over/under, according to BoDog.com, was 186.6, a difference of almost 10 points.

In 2006-07, Donaghy refereed 73 games. In those contests, the two teams combined to score 201.37 points and the average over/under was 187.9 points, a difference of more than 13 points per game.

"Vegas is too good for that to happen," Bell said. "The standard range should be somewhere around five or six, maybe. Not 10 or 13."

Mr Bell is right, Vegas is too good for that. But what's more interesting is that Vegas was not too good to price this information into the spreads of games worked by Mr Donaghy. After all, the spreads are public, and are viewable by millions of people, not just gamblers. So are the referee schedules. Again, from the article,

At the start of the 2007 calendar year, Bell said, there were 10 straight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the point spread moved a point and a half or more before tip-off, indicating big money had been wagered on the game. In those 10 contests, according to Bell, the big money won all 10 times.

So, clearly, someone was getting the benefit, but not the whole market. The market failed to notice that for 10 straight games, and for two seasons, games refereed by Mr Donaghy hit the over by a large margin. With all information publicly available, millions of dollars wagered, and tens of millions of observers this free market should have bid up the over/under line to reflect the "Donaghy Effect." Markets are not supposed to leave "cash on the table" or unexploited profit opportunity. Yet the market missed this. Badly.

Why?

Because, despite what textbooks and Cliff Note versions of Adam Smith tell us, markets are not perfectly efficient. They do leave "cash on the table" and miss significant events and signals. This is not a dig on "the Market" rather a reality check. The Market is the best thing going, but its not perfect, not by a long way. Some folks treat it like it is and get confused when its not. Take the old joke about an old economist and a young economist walking down the sidewalk. The young economist says, "look, a $100 dollar bill on the ground" and goes to pick it up. The old economist stops him and says, "its not real, if it were, someone would have picked it up by now." If economic theory as commonly stated were right, the market should have recognized the number of overs hit when Donaghy refereed, I mean, it had two years to find this information. Even more telling, figuring out the "Donaghy Effect" did not require any inside information, or archaic math equations or intense skulduggery. It was decidedly straight forward.

This is why stock pickers can beat the market, this is why entrepreneurs can succeed, and why people make profits. Its not that the "The" Market is perfect, its that the market is flawed. It's the "Free" Market that allows people to succeed in "The" Market. Remember this next time someone tells you that things are "priced into the stock" or whatever. That, and sometimes simpler is better.

As for the NBA. Maybe it should fully embrace gambling. Rather than spend all that time and money to monitor players and refs, let the market of gamblers inform the NBA of what's expected. When reality deviates from what that market expects, points, fouls, wins, player stats, etc then that should signal that something may be up. Focus on what millions of participants, with money on the line, have calculated. It's a bigger and better model than anything created on the NBA's budget of time and money. Had the NBA done that, they would have noticed the "Donaghy Effect" long before an informant tipped off the FBI.

To come full circle markets work. You just have to understand what that means.

Noooo, see I'm not gay, I'm just a racist. That's cool right?

FL Assemblyman Robert "Bob" Allen (R-Merritt Island) was recently arrested for solicitation in a Titusville restroom. But, he wasn't there for any "man love," and certainly not there to pay for it, he was there because he was scared.

This was a pretty stocky black guy, and there was nothing but other black guys around in the park," Allen, who is white, told police in a taped statement after his arrest. Allen said he feared he "was about to be a statistic" and would have said anything just to get away.

So there you have it folks, the first recored use of the "Let me free, I'm just a publicly elected racist" defense. You can read the officers description of the events and just what "say anything" means to Mr Allen in the same article. Just like Michael Vick, Mr Allen deserves his day in court, but just like my opinion on Mr Vick, I think Mr Allen is in trouble.

Just for kicks, you can also read Assemblyman Allen's recent legislation that would increase the penalty of such acts, make it easier to prosecute such acts, and increases the scope of such "lascivious" acts here. It died in Committee.

Hmmmm, maybe he was just doing "research."

Con-Vick?

I know, I know, Michael Vick hasn't been convicted of anything (and you won't see me jumping on, I just couldn't resist the title, and I have dibs on "Con-Vick-ted" if he goes down). However, things are heating up for young Michael as the feds have taken up the investigation into his alleged role in running a dog fighting ring.

Quick aside for a rant. ESPN Page 2 writer Bill Simmons argues that every professional sports team should hire a VP of Common Sense to keep GM's from making boneheaded moves-an idea I love. I also think that every pro athlete should make a member of his "posse" the official Jimmy the Cricket-or JC. After Mr Vick's run in with Miami Airport Security, he should have immediately hired a JC. Then said JC could have told Mr Vick that when you're a pro quarterback with a $130 million contract, maybe, just maybe, you should let the whole illegal dog fighting ring runner gig go. I think all athletes could benefit from a JC, probably wouldn't even have to pay much for the service, and in any case, what the JC saves in fines and public humiliation would surely cover their salary.

Anyway, all this hullabaloo around Mr Vick allegedly running an illegal dog fighting ring led to him abruptly canceling his annual camp, a move that is sure to enhance his reputation with the fans (apparently he's going for the rare "killer of dogs and children's dreams" combo).

Also, the same article has some excepts from a letter that Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank sent to season ticket holders, more of the letter here. Anyway, anytime you have to send a letter that asks, after defending your star QB from public persecution, that

"In the meantime, we want you to realize there are many examples of our organization impacting our community in a very positive manner."

And you also have to point out

the many charitable functions in which Atlanta players participate, and points out that the Atlanta Falcons Youth Foundation has to date provided more than $10 million in grants to Georgia-based nonprofit organizations.

You know things have gone horribly wrong for your organization and that you're in the midst of a PR nightmare. Keep in mind, all of this comes after a very disappointing season where you unexpectedly missed the playoffs and had to fire your head coach.

Again, I have no idea if he's guilty of anything other than really poor judgment in friends and hangouts, but things are going very badly for him right now. At a minimum, how can he concentrate on his job with a federal investigation hanging over him, and knowing that anyone who defends him will wind up like Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis. And he needs to concentrate after last years set-back season. As of now, Vick's all alone and under the blade.

For those of you who care deeply about the topic of dog fighting, here's a link to the Humane Society's campaign against Amazon.com. Apparently Amazon.com sells dogfighting videos and Cock Fighting magazines.

DC's gotta gun (bwahamp-a-bwamp)

A US Appeals court struck down, 2-1, a Washington D.C. law banning the personal ownership of handguns (at least if it's kept in the home).

First, to this I say, "Hoooray."

Now on to the article. First, this is going to be a major blow the to DC's tourism industry. Because, since the law went into affect in 1976, if there's one place in the country synonymous with "safety" it's Washington DC. I mean, I can't even remember the last time I heard about gun related violence in the nation's capital. I can't imagine what overturning this wildly successful law will mean. And here, gentle reader, is where I have to admit I was wrong. IAfter doing a little research it appears that DC is not the crime free utopia I imagined (for if it was illegal to own a handgun, how could there be any crime?) First I checked here for yearly crime stats for DC and was shocked to see that violent crime in 2005 was about the same per capita as violent crime in 1976 (it has been much worse over the interim, but never really better), not only that but DC is the 16th most dangerous city in 2005. But wiht handguns are illegal to have in the home, why didn't crime go away? Man was I ever wrong.

On to the judges. All three were appointed by Republicans, but the dissenter, Karen Henderson had this to say,

because the capital district isn't a state, the Second Amendment doesn't apply to it.

Now, I'm no Constitutional scholar (but I play one on the blogosphere), but I always thought it applied to the people, not the states. Using Judge Henderson's logic DC residents have no constitutional protections what-so-ever. Seriously, she's a judge.

Also, and just to demonstrate that "Judicial Activism" has no real meaning, and is really just clever code for "I disagree with the judges decision" Paul Helmke, president of the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence said "is judicial activism at its worst.'' Then adds, "Two federal judges have negated the democratically expressed will of the people of the District of Columbia." You can bet that if the court ruled in favor of the law that NRA spokesman Andrew Arulanandam would have said the same thing. In fact, here's my handy reference card for judicial decisions.

If the court agrees with you, say, "We think the court made the right decision.'' For color add, "It's good to see the courts make a reasoned decision that sticks to the principles laid down by our Founding Fathers."

If the court disagrees with you , say, "This is judicial activism at its worst." For color add, "This is another case of renegade judges using forcing their political agenda on the people, with total disregard for the the principles laid down by our Founding Fathers."

Bottom line? In my humble opinion the USC was helped out today, and the Second Amendment may be on the path towards a comeback. It was a good day.