The GOP Conundrum
Recent Polls show Bush's flagging approval ratings on most major issues. What's striking is that 80% of Dems dissaprove, while 90% of Republicans approve. The only thing worse than Bush's ratings are those of Congress, and that is the problem for the GOP. That core group of Republicans that approve of Bush do so out or personal loyalty. Key quote, "I may not approve of every single thing he does," McAllister said, "but he's a true leader because he's not leading by the polls." This quote, and other's like these, are rattling the rest of the GOP. Personal approval of Bush, even while disagreeing with his policies, does not translate to other candidates. I think this is why we're starting to see cracks in the GOP wall. Leading Republicans are aware that they are not Bush, and cannont rely on high personal approval. The concern must be that the blame for bad policy, because it is not sticking to Bush, will land on them. This will lead to more objections/defections, which could lead to lost opportunity for the GOP, and dissatisfaction of the base. Everyman for himself is a dangerous plan for the GOP, but this is the result of Bush's numbers. He must figure out a way to balance his numbers, and the rest of the GOP must figure out a way to garner some of his love with the base. GOP Presidential hopefuls (especially) must decide if they want to follow lock-step with a "war time" President who's numbers are below 50%, or do they want to risk the ire of a GOP base that is proping those numbers up?
Unless McCain gets the bid, the GOP may be in real trouble in 2008.
Once Bush is gone, however, the Dems would be wise to hit his policies while leaving him alone. But looking for wise strategy out of the Dems is in itself bad strategy.
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3 comments:
Bush clearly has not done a good job communicating to the American people. Whenever he does, his numbers increase significantly. Case in point the speech he gave on Iraq 3 or 4 months back. It sent approval numbers up almost 20 points. Why he doesn't do this is more often is anyone's guess, but it shows the "disapproval" number is not a strong one.
Congress always gets low poll numbers. No one likes Congress, but everyone loves their congressman. These low numbers from this general poll are not valid predictors of election results. There would be no reason to conclude from this poll that either party is in trouble. If you asked me if Congress was doing a good job I would say no, but then vote for the status quo.
As much of a stretch as it is to talk about a presidential election 3 years away, I would say that it will look much like the last one. The main issue will be terrorism. It will be more or less important depending on the number of attacks between now and then. The more skittish Americans are, the better for the Republican. Unless a hawk Democrat gets in, but I'm not sure any hawks are still welcome in the party at this time.
Can you show me the 20 point bounce your talking about? I don't remember that, and Zogby http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1007
shows no bounce at all after his June speech, in fact according to them he lost a point.
Congress' numbers at are near historical lows. Granted minor movements are not cause for alarm, but to ignore these numbers, now, may be wishful thinking. Yes things can change, but these are really, really low numbers. Midterms are coming up, and while individual citizens like yourself may not pay attention to polling numbers, you can bet congress does. If these numbers (for both Bush and congress) continue to bounce along the bottom congress will start breaking with the President. In fact, fractures are allready appearing. THAT's what will doom the party in 2008.
More on Bush's poll numbers. Here's a history of Gallups numbers for Bush: http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm
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