Black Hacks

It might be argued that it would be unfair to paint the entire NAACP with the same brush used to blot out the idiots seen to the left. However, they are part of the NAACP and are speaking on behalf of that organization. So what do they have to tell us? Well, that much like OJ, Michael Vick is being unfairly treated. In fact, we shouldn't conclude from Vick's admission of guilt that he is actually guilty. And, after he's sent to prison for this I'm-not-really-guilty-guilty plea he should be treated as if it never happened when he gets out. Give him back his job. Give him back his status in society. Give a brothah a break!

I'm not sure if there is any greater indicator that your organization no longer has any value than when it is reduced to defending humiliated ex-sports heroes. Wouldn't it be great if Mr. Vick could accomplish two august goals with his martyrdom: the end of hero worship for debauched men who can run fast and jump high and the end of the NAACP as the spokesmen for a group of people far better than they.

Gambling and "the Market"

Big controversy in the NBA as one of their refs, Tim Donaghy is accused of fixing games, and no that doesn't mean helping to bring back the mid-range jumper. He's accused of working with Mafia types to skew the the points scored in games, specifically effecting the over/under line.

But what I find more interesting is that he was able to pull this off. According to ESPN,

research into Donaghy's last two seasons supports Bell's claims. In the 66 games Donaghy refereed in the 2005-06 season, the two teams in his games combined to score an average of 196.8 points. The average over/under, according to BoDog.com, was 186.6, a difference of almost 10 points.

In 2006-07, Donaghy refereed 73 games. In those contests, the two teams combined to score 201.37 points and the average over/under was 187.9 points, a difference of more than 13 points per game.

"Vegas is too good for that to happen," Bell said. "The standard range should be somewhere around five or six, maybe. Not 10 or 13."

Mr Bell is right, Vegas is too good for that. But what's more interesting is that Vegas was not too good to price this information into the spreads of games worked by Mr Donaghy. After all, the spreads are public, and are viewable by millions of people, not just gamblers. So are the referee schedules. Again, from the article,

At the start of the 2007 calendar year, Bell said, there were 10 straight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the point spread moved a point and a half or more before tip-off, indicating big money had been wagered on the game. In those 10 contests, according to Bell, the big money won all 10 times.

So, clearly, someone was getting the benefit, but not the whole market. The market failed to notice that for 10 straight games, and for two seasons, games refereed by Mr Donaghy hit the over by a large margin. With all information publicly available, millions of dollars wagered, and tens of millions of observers this free market should have bid up the over/under line to reflect the "Donaghy Effect." Markets are not supposed to leave "cash on the table" or unexploited profit opportunity. Yet the market missed this. Badly.

Why?

Because, despite what textbooks and Cliff Note versions of Adam Smith tell us, markets are not perfectly efficient. They do leave "cash on the table" and miss significant events and signals. This is not a dig on "the Market" rather a reality check. The Market is the best thing going, but its not perfect, not by a long way. Some folks treat it like it is and get confused when its not. Take the old joke about an old economist and a young economist walking down the sidewalk. The young economist says, "look, a $100 dollar bill on the ground" and goes to pick it up. The old economist stops him and says, "its not real, if it were, someone would have picked it up by now." If economic theory as commonly stated were right, the market should have recognized the number of overs hit when Donaghy refereed, I mean, it had two years to find this information. Even more telling, figuring out the "Donaghy Effect" did not require any inside information, or archaic math equations or intense skulduggery. It was decidedly straight forward.

This is why stock pickers can beat the market, this is why entrepreneurs can succeed, and why people make profits. Its not that the "The" Market is perfect, its that the market is flawed. It's the "Free" Market that allows people to succeed in "The" Market. Remember this next time someone tells you that things are "priced into the stock" or whatever. That, and sometimes simpler is better.

As for the NBA. Maybe it should fully embrace gambling. Rather than spend all that time and money to monitor players and refs, let the market of gamblers inform the NBA of what's expected. When reality deviates from what that market expects, points, fouls, wins, player stats, etc then that should signal that something may be up. Focus on what millions of participants, with money on the line, have calculated. It's a bigger and better model than anything created on the NBA's budget of time and money. Had the NBA done that, they would have noticed the "Donaghy Effect" long before an informant tipped off the FBI.

To come full circle markets work. You just have to understand what that means.

Shambling to a Blog Near You

Susie Madrak needs help. She's a blogger. Now keep in mind that blogging requires a chair and at least one finger. The rigors of blogging are akin to the rigors of sun bathing. And yet to Susie this is "very intense - physically and mentally." If you ever needed a window into the union mentality, there it is. That which appears to be easy is actually very hard and, in fact, too hard for any one person to do. It takes a village to have a hobby.

Collectivism is the Cult of Incompetence. It is founded on one principle - You Can't. It is absurd.

Freedom is Slavery.

Ignorance is Strength.

Look for the Union Label.

Noooo, see I'm not gay, I'm just a racist. That's cool right?

FL Assemblyman Robert "Bob" Allen (R-Merritt Island) was recently arrested for solicitation in a Titusville restroom. But, he wasn't there for any "man love," and certainly not there to pay for it, he was there because he was scared.

This was a pretty stocky black guy, and there was nothing but other black guys around in the park," Allen, who is white, told police in a taped statement after his arrest. Allen said he feared he "was about to be a statistic" and would have said anything just to get away.

So there you have it folks, the first recored use of the "Let me free, I'm just a publicly elected racist" defense. You can read the officers description of the events and just what "say anything" means to Mr Allen in the same article. Just like Michael Vick, Mr Allen deserves his day in court, but just like my opinion on Mr Vick, I think Mr Allen is in trouble.

Just for kicks, you can also read Assemblyman Allen's recent legislation that would increase the penalty of such acts, make it easier to prosecute such acts, and increases the scope of such "lascivious" acts here. It died in Committee.

Hmmmm, maybe he was just doing "research."

The Wheels on the Bike Go Round and...ooooph

The New Jersey State Assembly recently passed bill A2686 which makes it illegal for bicycling stores to sell bikes with "quick release" skewers, the skewer is what binds the wheel to the bikes fork. While billed as a measure to protect the children, amendments added to the bill (for kicks, you can view the progress from a simple bill to a horribly convoluted bill by going to this link and checking out the versions, whoo hooo!) seem to read that all bikes are exempt. The problem is the 20" standard. In the first version, the standard was "intended for use by children." OK, that does seem to be purpose of the bill (more on that later). Then came, "with a wheel diameter of 20 inches or less." OK, now we're getting picky, but still, it's within the realm of the idea. Then came the mind numbing, "(a) the front wheel diameter is greater than 20 inches; or (b) it is a specialty adult bicycle with a front wheel diameter of 20 inches or less." while keeping the "20" or less" standard in the same document. So, it will be illegal to sell bikes with quick release skewers on bikes with a front wheel diameter of 20" or less, and bikes with a front wheel diameter of 20" or more. Now, I'm no math genius (that would be Mr. Malone's department), but that seems to cover pretty much all bikes (except, for some reason, adult specialty bikes with a front wheel diameter of less than 20", go figure). This is State Government at its finest. Simple bill, with a simple goal (patience, patience) that now takes it out of everyone with a very poorly written bill. There are 100's of thousands of bikes out there with qr's, I've ridden them for years, they serve many purposes and work great. While they can be a problem, so can any piece of equipment. A bolt can work loose, break, whatever.

But more interesting, and why this post is under the "Helen Lovejoy" tab is the the line that

"Children riding bicycles with quick release wheels have been involved in over 100 accident: Many of the children involved in these accidents have suffered injuries, including permanent scarring, disfigurement, major bone and dental trauma, severe scraping and bruising, brain injury, and ruptured internal organs;"

What it doesn't say is over what period that 100 happened and how many were of real consequence. Beyond being shoddy, its also dumb. I suggest banning roads, as I recall lots of road rash growing up riding my bike. I also recommend doing away with cars (easy to hit and get hit by), dogs, fences, other kids, rocks, sticks, ramps, girls (they induce boys to "show off"), bike chains, bike stems (any boy who's ever hit that knows exactly what I'm talking about), AND bolts (they come loose, I know this from actual experience, I suggest welding everything in place). I also suggest making all kids wear mouthpieces, gloves, steel toed boots, and knee and elbow pads. You know what, I think they should just ban "fun" and just make every parent wrap their kid in bubble wrap.

Finally, I liked this part.

[Multiple bicycle manufacturers have recalled their quick release mechanisms due to failure of the mechanism; and]²

The danger to children caused by bicycles with quick release wheels is unacceptable in light of the fact that safer alternatives exist ²; and

Furthermore, advances in quick release technology make it right and proper that the new mechanisms—which are less prone to assembler and user error—be used in place of the old².

It is, therefore, altogether fitting and proper that the State regulate the sale of bicycles with quick release wheels to stem the rash of senseless injuries to children resulting from their use.

Sooo, the market worked with recalls and newer quick releases that work better. Yet Paul D. Moriarity, wants to ban them and regulate an obscure part of the bike market. It's elementary, Moriarity can't ride a bike and doesn't want anyone else to do so either. Because of Assemblyman Moriarity, the whole of NJ can't buy bikes with qr's increasing cost and hassle for everyone, all because over 100 problems of some sort have occurred over some undetermined amount of time.

Local Government, gotta love it.

I'm So Wasted

Jeff Spicoli met with Hugo Chavez in Caracas to discuss matters of state. At one point during the visit Spicoli picked up an emaciated street urchin and struck the side of his head, "That was my skull!" he shouted to the nervous looking revellers. Silent armed guards nearby seemed to enjoy the exchange, at least, that's what the local papers reported. Spicoli then offered that he couldn't think of any good reason why Mr. Hand would have a problem with a violent criminal running a country. "It must be because of oil," he concluded. The nervous crowd seemed to approve of this assessment or possibly they were just signalling their recognition of the word "oil". After the rally the Great Leader and his Bud retired to the palace to work on a diorama of Joseph Stalin.