2008

Here's my bet. Whatever happens now, the Dems are a lock for 2008. This is the apex of GOP control. The party's future is a fight between the religious conservatives and the government conservatives, and they have major differences. The RC's are every bit a big government party as the liberal left. When the GOP used to talk of less government and a greater roll for charity, they meant for charities to take up the slack so taxpayers would pay less. Bush wants to bring charities onto the federal dole. GC's want less govt, the RC's want bigger govt telling the people how to live (see the FMA). A preemptive constitutional amendment is the antithesis of what the GC's believe. Bush has repeatedly asked "what can the government do for you?" Even Kennedy, the liberal hero said "ask not what your country can do for you..." And Bush's fiscal spending is beyond anything on any Dem. Presidents resume. Bush's Presidency brought the schism between the GC's and RC's to light. The GOP was rebuilt on the backs of the RC's. They started the very effective policy of running real campaigns for school boards, local elections, and state elections, knowing that this would translate into Federal control, and they were right. The whole time the GC's looked the other way at some of the extreme positions, and probably thought they could control them. But Bush shattered that illusion. The next several years, win or lose now, will be a fight for control of the GOP. This fight will cost the party elections, and the Dems are primed to take advantage. They are suddenly the party of fiscal restraint, and less govt intrusion into the lives of the citizens (see their opposition to the FMA and the Patriot Act extension). Redistricting, the Holy Grail for the GOP, only exacerbates the problem. Only the extremes form the GOP can hope to win nomination, and the fight to see who is more overtly pious, and who wants to legislate from that point will push the party even further in the direction of the RC's. It's a huge bet in a country where religion is on the wane. This alliance paid off spectacularly over the last 4 years, but it simply cannot hold. Throw in the fact that there is no VP to run as successor in 2008, well, the fight for GOP nomination is going to messy. The question is whether the nation can handle 4 more years of Bush's spending, and personal invasions. My bet is that even if he wins, the GOP battle has begun, and that Bush will face real obstacles in his agenda over the next four years (and he'll be a lame duck, never a good position anyway).