Gay Marriage is done

Looking at the state initiatives, the most striking is the massive support for Gay Marriage Amendments. Looking at the results and the polling, I now believe that this debate is functionally over. The plan for denying homosexuals the ability to marry AND any type of legal relationship is obvious. Polls show that (in round numbers) 30% of Americans support the right of homosexuals to marry, 33% want to bar any type of recognition (marriage and civil unions, contracts, etc) and 36% support defining marriage as between a man and woman, but are ok with civil unions. So here it looks like what should pass any vote is simply defining marriage as between a man and woman. However, what passes is the complete denial of rights. Why? Look at the pro-marriage types. Some part of the 33% are really on the fence, so take it down to 30%. Of that, how many are passionate enough to really fight for it? Spend money, speak vocally, take personal risk to secure this right, not many. But look at the complete denial team. Of the 33% how many are on the fence? None. How many are willing to really fight this fight, spend money, be vocal, take personal risk, almost all. So one camp is split, and mostly meek, the other is united and passionate. Stopping there, who wins the fight for the middle 36%? No brainer. But take a look at the middle 36%. More of them probably lean towards total denial than total rights. How many of them really care? Not many. If pressed in a vote to vote for total denial, most will probably shrug and vote for it. Thinking, "close, but not perfect." The thing is, the social conservatives figured out how to get the 36%ers to vote their way. By tagging state amendments as "Amendment X: Defines marriage as between one man and one woman." The outcome is never in doubt. While the fine print may say "and deny any legal recognition to contracts or civil unions" not many will get that far. So a big chunk of the middle votes for it, thinking it mimics their views. Those that take the time to read it, some of them will go ahead and vote for it anyway. Their catchphrase is clearer, and the pro-gay marriage folks need to educate why its not what it says. This is always a losing proposition in elections. Restrictive gay marriage amendments will pass in most, if not all states. Keep in mind, even CA passes some anti-liberal laws (immigration, 3 strikes, etc). Regardless, all you need is 3/4 of the states to pass one and a federal amendment is inevitable. Once its a part of state law, it would take nothing to get voters to go ahead an vote for a national amendment as they already (overwhelmingly, this time at least) supported it at the state level. In congress, how many legislators would fall on their sword for this issue, given the inevitability of it, not enough. The best news for the social conservatives, is that this process will take about a decade, giving them lots of election year life for this wedge issue. Its a false bill of goods, but its inevitable.