Monday, November 22, 2004

Mullah Madness

My question is what do you propose in place of diplomacy? Diplomacy works when both sides want resolution, or when one or both sides are stalling for time. The world is in the latter with Iran, and Iran also needs it that way. For Iran, it needs the time to develop a nuke so it can tell the US to screw off, and overtake Saudi Arabia as the Middle East power. We need it because we have no choice. We cannot confront Iran because we're already overextended in Iraq. Furthermore, and invasion of Iran would be a disaster. Suppose we had the troops, there is no doubt that the battle would be quick, but winning that peace would make Iraq look easy. Also, the price of oil would go through the roof. Remember, when we went into Iraq, OPEC said they would overproduce to handle the Iraqi loss. With Iraq off-line and Iran in the middle of a war, oil prices soar, and stay high for years (Iran would undoubtedly destroy the wells and pipe lines, and they would make great targets for Inrani insurgents). So we're forced to play for time. Our only hope is that the pro-democracy forces in Iran somehow speed up their bid for power. Its a race that we'll lose. Ultimately, Iran will have the bomb. The response from the right will be that it was inevitable that the nuclear club would expand so deal with it. I like McLeiberman's solution, just bomb the nuclear sites and tell Iran that they can't play. It would inflame anti-US feelings and set back the pro-democracy movement, but that's a great trade for our security. It would also make the US nuke lobby cry foul, and they're big GOP donors, but again, a great trade. Iran realized long ago that the America says one thing and does another. The talk tough in public and roll-over in private policy has been the stalwart US policy since Reagan. Thus, it's no surprise that we got outmanuvered here. They know we need the oil. This was part of the flaw with nation-building in the Middle East. It would take decades for the affects of a strong, stable Iraqi democracy to spread. In the meantime, we're even more involved in a perennially messed up region. It would have made much more sense to find an oil alternative for the US. It would have been cheaper, faster, and more stable. I don't say this from an environmental standpoint. I honestly don't care if we started burning coal in our cars, we need to untangle ourselves from the Middle East. What has happened is that our best threat, "we'll kick your ass" has been defanged by Iraq. Diplomacy without a stick resorts to bribery, which is what's happening. We simply cannot enforce our will upon anyone right now. N. Korea showed this and Iran listened. Iran listened when N. Korea said "we have the bomb, and we're making missiles," and the US was silent. Iran listened when it turned out that Pakistan gave N. Korea the technology, and the US was silent. This is the best time for them to make their move, and they're doing it.

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