Monday, November 22, 2004

Re: Mullah this

I think you're basically right but sometimes a carrot is needed with the stick. Just like with people, simply brutalizing bad guys that you have to interact with again one day and expecting good results is folly. If we could just lock up the nation of Iran and throw away the key, you may have a point but sadly...We can't, so you have to figure out ways to make them productive or, at least, non threatening members of society. The person example is a good one. A stern father with a mother who tempers the punishments with rewards or in criminal justice, the Good cop/bad cop routine are effective techniques. The problem arises when the parent/cops aren't working together and are actually undercutting each other, which is what Europe has been doing to us.

Unlike the theocratic method of gov't that most Iranians hate, there is a nationalism and a belief that if, Pakistan and Israel have the bomb, why shouldn't they? Its not an unreasonable question. If the solution to Iranian aggression lies in getting rid of the Mullahs (which i think it does) causing a nationalist backlash against the West can only undermine the real objectives.

Iran is avery different situation than Iraq. There is an educated middle class, an aware,very young/ pro Western political movement and a gov't that does rely on some sort of legitimacy outside of the sword. The sacking of Hussein sent a great message to the Mullahs and exposure to and investment from the West will hurt the regime not help it. That all being said, if Israel can figure out an effective way to go Osiraq on them....Not the worst thing in the world.


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