Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Interesting poll

In the first poll I've seen directly focused on troops, Zogby has some interesting results.

Taken as a group, 72% of troops in Iraq want a withdrawl in 12 months. By branch, guardsmen want out now at about 75%, while only 15% of Marnies feel that way, but 58% of Marines back the 12 month idea. This makes sense to me. Guardsmen and Reserves signed on for a weekend a month and two weeks a year, not extended duty abroad. I wonder if this contributes to the "I know a soldier in Iraq who has high/low morale" conversations we've all heard. If your guy is a guardsman, morale is probably low, if he's a marine, probably high.

I thought the good news was that most feel like they have adequate armor.

However, I thought the answers as far as why we're their were very interesting.
"The wide-ranging poll also shows that 58% of those serving in country say the U.S. mission in Iraq is clear in their minds, while 42% said it is either somewhat or very unclear to them, that they have no understanding of it at all, or are unsure. While 85% said the U.S. mission is mainly “to retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9-11 attacks,” 77% said they also believe the main or a major reason for the war was “to stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq.”

“Ninety-three percent said that removing weapons of mass destruction is not a reason for U.S. troops being there,” said Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International. “Instead, that initial rationale went by the wayside and, in the minds of 68% of the troops, the real mission became to remove Saddam Hussein.” Just 24% said that “establishing a democracy that can be a model for the Arab World" was the main or a major reason for the war. Only small percentages see the mission there as securing oil supplies (11%) or to provide long-term bases for US troops in the region (6%)."

Seems very discombobulated to me. More than 58% of the troops should have a clear understanding of why they're fighting. I don't know if this is a failure of leadership, or if it reflects the constantly shifting rataionale we're getting here in the states. When only 6 in 10 troops have a clear goal in mind, right or wrong (and reading the reasons, its entirely possible that each of the 6 has a different "clear" objective) it sounds more like a mercenary army than a democratic one. In any case, the administrations latest reason, "to build a democracy in the Middle East," doesn't seem to be connecting with the troops.

This clearly isn't the be-all end-all to understanding the troops, but it is interesting.

4 comments:

StalinMalone said...

Polling is, by its very nature, as much about the poll as those polled. And what it does capture about the sample is often quite misleading. Obviously, the usefulness of a poll varies directly with the subtlety of the points being considered. "Who do you want for president?" is exactly the type of question a poll can address. "What is the reason for the Katrina disaster" is exactly the kind of question a poll cannot address in any meaningful way.

Stalin's advice to the kids: Take polls, like UBlo's dating advice, with a large grain of salt.

The Unknown Blogger said...

Just curious, what do you use as a barometer for troop morale?

StalinMalone said...

Desertion rate. Or more probably reenlistements. Seriously, grumbling is part of any organization. It is as American as Paula Abdul. If there was a significant morale problem, you couldn't keep the troops around and certainly wouldn't get them coming back. The notion that the troops are "significantly" unhappy is a political assertion. As we type, it is not any more a problem than the loss of productivity caused by the unhappiness of the American worker. Both are real, but not significant enough to warrent serious contemplation.

Love the suitcoat!

The Unknown Blogger said...

My suitcoat rocks! Took me years to weave it out of old hair-clippings.

Back to the issue at hand. Recruitment is way below goals. Reinlistment is also below target, and stop-loss reinlistment (where they don't let you leave)is still common. At the recent summit, Governors pushed Bush hard on his use of the National Guard becasue soldiers are bailing and no one is replacing them, leaving states unprepared to handle emergencies. Using your own benchmarks raises similar concerns.

And to your other point. When office productivity suffers no one dies, missions aren't compromised, and you can always quit. I'm going to bet you would be hard pressed to get any Iraq vet to say his tour and your office are similar in any real way.