The Bush is burning

Bush's numbers hit a new low according to this poll, more numbers here. Yes, yes, Stalin, I know you don't believe polls. But I'm going to talk about this anyway, you can't stop me with your cynicism. A few things strike me about this poll, and what options Bush has. First, this low comes not after any particularly bad news. It seems to be a sign of gradual erosion which must be troubling to the White House. If he dipped on some event, the 3000th soldier dying in Iraq, for example, then that could be viewed as a dip, that would recover as the event passed. This is different. Also, the number of people who strongly disagree is more than twice the number of people who strongly agree, and greater than his net approval number. Its even more glaring if you look at the trends in "Strongly Approve" and "Strongly Dissaprove." At some point he falls off a cliff. Your seeing some of the fall out in the way his party is treating him, both on the ports deal, and in Specter calling for him to explain his roll in the leaks.

The problem is how to reverse this trend. In the past, the GOP found a new group to viciously attack to bolster numbers. Those who questioned Iraq, homosexuals, 75 year old lawyers, you get the picture. This seems to be the plan with illegal immigrants. But this group has some problems. One its not a small group like gays. The millions of legal hispanics are deeply connected to the illegal. They vote, they march, and they remember. They have the numbers to move elections, especially when the GOP/Dem balance is so close. Especially in Texas and Florida. Two, there's no easy constituency to back the attack. Religious groups are mostly in the lets not watch them suffer group, putting them at odds with House Republicans. Businesses want them, and hispanics are the fasted growing group in the country, and they further divide the religious base. Moderates don't care, and this concept of a wall is so distaseful that building it will destroy the GOP. This is the crux of the problem. Taking a harsh line on immigration appeals to the base that is largely the group that gives him his 38 percent rating. However, in order to improve that rating you have to reach out beyond that base, and ease the hard line against immigration, but doing so risks the base. If you fail, you lose the base, and your number goes down even more.

This immigration issue has wheels. A misstep here, or more accurately, more missteps here, and the GOP may lose the hispancs for years, while further consolodating the dem base. This may mean that this GOP nirvana over the last 8 years is a blip.