A Great Man Once Blogged...
The obvious outcome of the Iranian crisis was posted on this very Blog by this very Blogger some five months ago. Diplomacy only works when it is conducted between partners who both truly seek a compromised settlement. This has never been the case with Iran (or any other dictatorial regime). This is why diplomacy in these cases has always been a sad and pathetic farce. Now we are at the inevitable climax so what do we do now? Iran will have the bomb in a very short time. Is that result so unpleasant that extreme measures must be taken now? Or is it only an unpleasant result that we can manage effectively enough allowing us the luxury of merely tut-tutting our way through this along with the Russians and Chinese? I ask the gifted minds of Hyrdrablog to weigh in.
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I favor one of these two solutions. One, hit the sites. Do not, repeat, do not invade. Hit the sites and move on. It's not like we're going to turn an ally into an enemy. The great part of dealing with someone who hates you is that you don't have to worry about them hating you. If we're on the inevitable path of war with Iran, this hit will but us time, time we need to rebuild, and/or redeploy troops. Maybe even have Israel do it (quick side note, if you're worried about a nuclear attack, move to Israel. No way anyone nukes all those holy sites, no one's going to turn Jerusalem into a wasteland). The other is a game of high-stakes chicken. Tell China to come up with a plan to de-nuke N. Korea and Iran, or Taiwan "develops" their own bomb. Let's see if China tut-tuts when one of their enemies joins the club. Give them some skin in the game.
What I think is interesting is Saudi's lack of concern. A nuked up Iran is not in their best interest.
Finally, a part of me wonders if the oft cited example of why the Iraq war was a success is that Syria allowed Lebanon to have elections outweighs the fact that apparantly Iran is clearly feeling heady enough with US troop next door to overtly develop nukes. This move tells me one of two things. One, they're insane. Or two, they have intel (right or wrong) that tells them something about US strength and or will in that region that makes them feel comfortable with this action. Can't have that.
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