Chinese Democracy

Some quick thoughts on China and it's Peaceful Rise slogan. While I believe its mostly true from a US stand-point, I would be very concerned if I was Taiwan. Or differently, China is not a threat to harm the US, but it does want Taiwan back. If Stalin is right that Iran is bolstered in its actions by the US being distracted in Iraq, China must surely feel the same way. Given our inaction in N. Korea, and the fact that China tests US loyalty toward Taiwan regularly, including just today, I think a move coming. At some point China will correctly guess that the US will not go to war with China over Taiwan, period. A President, and the American people will not risk a major confrontation, possible nuclear, with China over Taiwan. Furthermore, the US cannot afford sanctions, and is also compounded by the fact that they own a lot of our debt, and buy it as it comes avliable. They will point out that Hong Kong is doing fine under Chinese control, so Taiwan shouldn't be any different, but just as Hong Kong is under Chinese control, it is neccessary for Taiwan as well. This will give enough cover to a US president to allow re-possession.

Again, global politics is zero-sum. Other nations looking to rise, even peacefully, will test us, and when we're stretched thin, the tests will come faster. First there was N. Korea, now Iran, and my bet is China is coming. Part of me wonders how much China is controling these issues behind the scenes. The problem with answering the "are we stretched too thin" is that answering it with force only stretches us further. Re-raising the question, with more probablility of it being correct. If our actions are being manipulated so that others may grow we have to start changing the game. Arming Taiwan will firmly check China's ambitions in the region, place them under pressure, allow Taiwan to grow at China's expense, and get China to finally act on nuclear proliferation.