Polls and market speak, W's value is dowwwwn.

The latest AP poll shows W again at his all time low with a 32% approval, which is also in line with his Hydrablog number. This alone isn't big or breaking news. Breaking it down, he has a 70% number with Republicans, a 25% number with Independents, and an 8 (yes 8) with Democrats.

Polls may lie, but markets rarely do. Take a look at this article. It implies that W's value in the market has declined from $25,000 for a photo to $5,000 in New Jersey. As a side note, I would love to see some real tracking on the value of photo ops with politicians and how much of an indicator that price is as for popularity and/or predictive of winning.

Combined, my bet is that you will see the current crop of GOP hopefuls start to really distance themselves, and eventually turn outright on W. While a 70 number is high in the GOP, you can't win with 25 and 8 for the other groups. A candidate needs Independents and Democrats to win, even if that means sacrificing some of the 70. You got a hint of this during the last GOP debate. My bet is that the candidates are crunching the data to see how their various methods of distancing themselves, and taking tentative jabs at W went. If it's not killing them, they will keep ramping up efforts on distance and jabs until its full out. The goal will be to trade one person from the 70 for three or more from the Independents and Democrats.

Bottom line...W's hurting. He's like wounded piranha, and the rest of the GOP piranha school is poised to devour him.