The great dem chicken count

Drudge has a brief on a Barron's article under the headline, "MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS," Barron's full article here (subscription required). I put it here for the following reasons.



One, Barron's, and their parent company The Wall St. Journal typically fall on the "money doesn't matter in politics" camp, but part of their analysis of the GOP holding on is "based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data." They're not alone, most handicappers us late season media buy's when looking at who will win. This isn't a "ah-ha" post about how Barron's is going back on itself, rather can we all agree that money's very important, then work on a solution? Personally, I favor the NASCAR method. I think Politicians should have to wear sewn on logo's of their donors. It would much more helpful for me, as a viewer, if as Senator has a big STP patch on his jacket when he stands in front of the camera talking about how important it is to give more incentives to the Oil industry. Anyway, this isn't a post on campain finance reform, so off we go.



Two, as I've discussed on this blog, gerrymandering makes changes harder in the House. For a real barometer of how the nation is feeling, you have to look to the Senate. As statewide elections, Senators cannot hide in safe districts. However, they do have the money barrier for protection. Sitting Senator's have large war chests and it cost's more to run a Senate campaign than a House campaign. Still, a big move in the Senate will be telling. Not neccessarily from a policy stand-point if the GOP holds on, but definitely from as a referendum on current policy and vision.



Third, this article on Pelosi shows she has a much different view of the Novemember results. Yes, like the White House, Pelosi needs to project a sense of confidence that the Dems will win, but most of the Dems gain in the polls seems to come from GOP gaffes, rather than Dem moves. While moving up in the polls surely feels good, relying on opponent mistakes rather than you're own moves means you are squarely at the mercy of them figuring it out in time to pull out a victory. As I've said before, Pelosi needs to win first, then she can worry about Speaker Pelosi. However, if the Dems don't take the House, she should be fired as minority leader. Period.