Hand me the whip, this horse isn't dead enough

More musings on Frist's ban of internet gambling, well not all gambling, lotteries and horses are a-ok, it's poker that Frist is after. Ironic that of the three, poker is the only one that requires real skill, but that's not the point of this post. Also, Radley Balko does a nice job of explaining how this ban, like most government attempts to save us from ourselves, may cause more damage.

What I'm curious about is the effect on poker boom. Over the last decade or so, poker has gone from a true niche game to a national phenomena. I remember when the one poker magazine in existance was about to close shop, now there are no less than three national glossy magazines that you can buy in the airport. I also remember special ordering Doyle Brunsen's Super/System by phone from a specialty book store in Vegas, now it's at every bookstore in America. For my last trip down memory lane, I remember staying up late to watch a Brittish Poker show that aired on Fox, Friday Night Poker it think (this was also before Tivo), now there are at least six national shows about poker. I also remember when comic books cost less than 50 cents, my hip hurts and those damn kids won't get off my lawn!

Most of this explosion is fueled by on-line poker sites. Super Satellites, a game where a $1 entry can get you a seat at the $10,000 main event entry fee for the World Series of Poker ballooned the event to consecutive record turn-outs, the "first day" was really multiple waves played out over several weeks. Plus the poker boom came about at a time when Vegas bookings, earnings and seats were all down. That changed when people wanted to take their on-line skills to the big show. Killing internet gaming kills the golden goose for an entire industry. A legal industry, that generates conciderable profits for it's investors and loads of tax revenue.

But is it dead? By targeting banks that issue credit cards, debit cards or wire transfers that pay for the gambling it does appear to choke the life out of the industry. However, if the will is high enough (and looking at the monster growth of poker players nation wide - and the incredible revenue they generate, $6 bln in the US for on-line poker alone, it looks like it is) then someone will find a way. I'm no expert on international banking, but I assume one could set up a credit card or bank account in a foreign jusidiction and avoid the whole mess. My guess is also that the internet will make this process easy. So, while it may temporarily dissuade a casual internet gamer from playing poker, the internet, and comfort with the internet, will create a way around it. My bet (heh) is that a work-around will crop up, internet poker will stay around, US companies will lose revenue, taxpayers lose revenue and possibly shady, and definitely foreign, organizations/nations will increase their income.

Genius Frist, absolute genius.