What's Up, Mullah?
Even though Iran's place in the Axis of Evil is well deserved that does not mean that they are irrational wackos. There is a well-designed plan behind the abduction of the British sailors and I think it is H-Blog's job to ferret it out (because if H-Blog can't save the world, who can?). My first question is why did Iran capture Brits and not Yanks? We are the Great Satan, they should be trying to embarrass us. I think this is because the Democrats are already doing just what Iran wants...pulling out the troops. They risk creating a backlash that might force the Democrats to jump off the capitulation train. They can kill our soldiers in Iraq and still maintain their cover since there are scores of journalists in the US who say the links between Iran and Iraqi violence are as weak as the links between Saddam and Al Qaeda. So why risk screwing up a good thing?
But why pick the Brits? When Blair is gone so will the Brits and that will be soon. Is this just a crime of convenience? Are they looking for a short term intel boost at the expense of long term strategic advantages? Is it just a show of strength for the consumption of the turban in the street? Do they think the Brits are too weak to respond appropriately? UBlo has always had the superior strategic mind (he sleeps with a copy of The Prince under his pillow) so I hope he will step to the plate and help elucidate us.
My shot in the dark is that the Iranians think the British are the same as the rest of the EU and that they will fold up and capitulate if they are bullied. Therefore, they don't see a downside to this sad little show of force. And this plays well in the casbah which will go a long way to establishing Iran at the top of the heap of Muslim sentiment. They may not be Arabs, but they get things done. That will win hearts and minds. They know that sanctions will be toothless and even without Corrupt Kofi around to assist, they will get around them. From this perspective it seems like a pretty good move. And one the Brits should have been ready for.
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I'm on vacation so I haven't had time to dig too deep into this. My off the cuff, is that this abduction has several roots.
1. Yes a show of strength. This show may have several meanings. One, Iran has showed verbal strength in defying any attempt to curb their nukes. But in reality, its been a lot of words. Taking a physical action takes things to a new level, albeit safely (see below). By doing so they send a message to their own moderates, to use your words, "that they get things done." This will play well with the masses, stymie the "work with the west crowd," nothing like showing personal strength and opponent weakness. Who would go against such strong leadership, and who would work or bet on the help of such sissies as the Brits? So this move keeps the moderates at bay, makes the West look weak, and makes leadership look strong. (Yes, I know that the group that took the Brits isn't "officially" sanctioned, but that little detail gets lost by everyone, may not be true, and also gives Iran a way out if things went bad).
3. Its a gauge of the West' abilities and desire. The Brits are taking no immediate action, despite having just freed up troops. The US is taking no immediate action either. So this may be a test of will for the much discussed invasion of Iran. Again, using a test group you could disavow if things went bad. In any case, the delay only makes Coalition forces look weaker.
3. Making coalition forces look weaker, by definition makes Iran look stronger. Iran wants to be the leader of the Mid-East, and they're playing the role masterfully.
4. They've learned from Kim. The West IS too occupied by Iran. For all of our talk, Kim is doing what he wants, and now Iran is following the lead.
5. Why the Brits? If the US is on a hair trigger, don't provoke them. What you want to do is to look strong without taking risk. The Bits have one foot out the door. What are the chances that they would reverse everything and invade? Near zero right? However, it plays really well with global media and perception. Also the US won't go in to save some Brits, and even if we wanted to, the assumption must be that the Brits would stop us.
6. The Brits are safe. The whole plan falls apart if they're all beheaded. This is all about appearance, not about starting a war. Iran will drag this out, parade them around, and then come up with some way to let them go. The muted response from both Britain and the US says all parties understand this.
Those are my off the cuff thoughts. Please begin to blast away.
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