H-Blog's first 2008 Crib Sheet

Here's the first in a potential series of quick hits on the 2008 Presidential Election. Looking at random candidates who are either in, or are strong potentials to jump in.

Democratic Party Candidates:

Former VP Al Gore: Not officially in. Here's a tip, Gore is binary. If he enters the race it will only be because he knows he'll win. You may not see it, I may not see it, but absolutely the only way he's in is if he's aware of something that all but guarantees him the win (not just the nomination, but the whole shebang). Bank on it. Unless that scenario presents itself, he won't run. Black and white. In, win, out lose. I know most people think there's no way, but remember this, he won the popular election. Not only did he win, but he "beat" someone who would go on to become a wildly unpopular President who's waging a wildly unpopular war, which to his credit Gore never backed. There will be some "what if Gore won" sentiment, and not just from the die-hards. Also, agree with it or not, Global Warming is reaching the tipping point, and Gore was way out ahead of that issue (granted he'll have real trouble describing exactly what he did to help during all his years as Senator and VP, ie nothing really). Those are two big things, but still not enough for him to risk losing again. Having said that, I think he would love to take Hillary out.


Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY): Here's what's interesting about her. Her polling numbers (both favorable and unfavorable) are remarkably stable, going back to her time as First Lady (by the way, are we really at a point where First Ladies have polling numbers?). What this means for her campaign is that they know exactly what they're dealing with. They know her positives and negatives and can create strategies to address both with little guess work. However, the consistency and level of her unfavorable numbers, combined with such a small percentage of "don't know's" is a real problem for her. There's just not much room to work with. People know, and a lot of people know they don't like her. Looking into the future, even if she manages to win, she will find it very hard to govern with those negative numbers (See Bush, George W). Still, with her money, skill, high favorable marks, and high ability and willingness to fight, she's the current front runner for the nomination, but hard to imagine her winning it all.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL): Nipping at Hillary's heels. The current media darling. The Audacity of Hope. Generally has negatives in the "What have you done?" category. I don't think this is a big deal, look at W, nondescript Governor, terrible business past, President (I don't bring this up to slam W, really, rather to point out that "resume" is often overblown in elections, sad as it is, it usually comes down to "likability"). But still, what has he done? What will he hang his hat on come election time? This will be the resounding issue for his candidacy, in these very tense times, what's he done? He's a great speaker, good looking guy, being African American helps, but all he's been is a candidate. Not only that, but he's never been tested. He walked into the Illinois gig, wasn't really blasted, what will happen when the heat gets turned up. I have to say, so far so good. When Fox ran their brief smear campaign against him (debunked, again, Fox hides and blames Hillary here, just good times all around), he handled it very well, so maybe he'll handle the heat (by the by, how come no calls for the heads of the Fox news folks who went with this "story?"). In any case, I think he passes Hillary and becomes the nominee. But can he win? Even if he doesn't he could be in fine position for a run in 2012.

One very large problem plagues the two Democratic front runners and all Senators with Presidential hopes. A Senator hasn't won the Presidency since Kennedy. Obama can overcome this because he just doesn't have a lot of votes under his belt to attack (the good part of "just what has he done"). The "stain" of the Senate isn't quite set in. But for Hillary, this is a killer.

Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM): I think he missed his window. By playing it coy in 2004, he missed his chance. Had he made his move, I do think he would be President right now. However, he's Hispanic, he's a Governor (huge, huge position for running for President), solid resume (yes, I know I said that resume is overblown, but better to have it than not), and he's savvy. However, rumors plague him that he has some severe "negatives" in his past, NM doesn't bring a lot of electoral votes, and no one talks about NM unless its about illegal immigration. I think his best bet is VP, but if one of the two falters, and Hillary will, so all he really needs to hope for is an Obama stumble, he'll be a threat.

Frmr Sen. John Edwards: I'll sum up this way. No ones thinking that Kerry lost despite the great help he got from Edwards. He's going no where, the "Kerry Stain" is just too much. Sure is good looking though.

Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE): Not a chance. Running just to run, get his name out, try to gain some power and influence in the Senate. Maybe looking for the VP gig, but I doubt it. Would be fun in the VP debates though.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT): Really needs to work to get known. Also don't see him using 2008 as a platform to 2012. Another VP candidate?

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Rev. Al Sharpton: They just like to take their act on the road. They do a good job of raising issues and getting attention. They're playing for speaking time at the convention.

The GOP:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): Dead man walking. This almost a Shakespearian Tragedy. Straight Talking Maverick Republican gains national following, loses Presidential primary, spends next eight years becoming Conservative puppet, cozies up to those who destroyed him, they don't rebuild him, he loses all credibility with his national following, never gains credibility he so desperately sought with conservatives, gets blown out early in the process of the 2008 primary. At this point no one likes him. Essentially sold his soul for a lump of coal. If I'm right, this is the saddest story I've witnessed since I've been following politics. There will be books about how he was destroyed by others in 2000, and how he destroyed himself in 2008. Did I mention that he's a Senator with a looooooong voting record? Lieberman may want to watch this closely. Not because of a potential gig as VP, but because his career is looking remarkably similar. Both took the express train from rebel to pawn.

Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani: At this point, while not in, the favorite, and the favorite with the best chance of winning it all. "America's Mayor." Perceived moderate, knows how to campaign, knows how to fight, knows how to win. Credited not only with cleaning up NYC (image, crime, economy, etc), but became real hero with the WTC bombing. Just cannot be attacked on any 9/11 issue and can take the high ground in that debate instantly. Has negatives, but they're well known and, more importantly, he knows how to deal with them. His main problem will be getting out of the primary. The moderate status that will help him nationally will hurt him with the GOP base. The question is, will they overlook his social moderation in favor of his untouchable 9/11 cred? Or has W mined 9/11 for all its worth, leaving Rudy without any cover?

Frmr Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR): Tough road when you're best known for losing over 100 pounds. Still, a Republican in a Democratic state, well respected Governor, and the weight loss is a great story. Part of the new breed Republicanism, deeply religious, favors big government on his issues, sort of a W before the wheels fell off. Hard to place in the race, I'm giving him dark horse status. Not sure about his VP cred. Possible, he's out of a job. AR doesn't have a lot of electoral votes, but if he can take some Blue in a close race he'd be worth it. Definitely worth watching.

Frmr Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA): Similar to Gore only not quite as drastic. He'll run on field weakness, while Gore will only go for the sure thing. Tons and tons of negative history. Hard to imagine that he'll really overcome them. More likely, Gingrich may take the Buchanan route. Run, get some press, get some props, then settle into a nice high paying pundit job and spit out a book every few years (at least this time he'll get to keep the proceeds). Not a chance that he's eying the VP gig.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): The Libertarian. Which is Latin for "No Chance." Running to promote issues. A sane Dennis Kucinich. Hopefully will spark some memory of a GOP that was for small government, individual responsibility, and individual freedom. Best bet is a speaking gig at the convention.

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO): Here's the GOP answer to Kucinich. Pure issue push. I think they should go out and do a road show. Seriously, total opposites, passionate, nuts. I'd pay to see them debate.


Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NB): Gaining fast. I think he's Rudy G's biggest threat. Smart, has the Presidential look (white male, nice hair), working his way nicely through the Iraq debate. Hasn't been in the Senate long (but his "Senator" status can't be discounted), won an upset victory to gain the seat in 1996, and has been pushing back on the White House's handling of Iraq without coming across as whiny, disingenuous, or treasonous. Plus he's a vet. His post as deputy whip for the Republican Caucus gives him access to favors and connections. Personally, I think he's going to be the one who comes out of the primaries the winner. Watch him.

Frmr Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA): (By special request from the Comments Section). An enigma for the GOP. At first blush he seems like a great fit, deeply religious, conservative, comes from the NE where he can steal a lot of Electoral College votes, etc. Then you start peeling back the layers. His religion is Mormon which is a bit iffy with the Catholics and the Born Again set, at least in theory. The fact that he was elected Guv of MA, with its high concentration of Catholics tells me maybe this isn't as big a deal as some make it. But still, the national spotlight on The Church of Latter Day Saints may reveal some of the peculiarities of the religion, some of which may not play well with middle American voters. Personally, I think it's going to hurt him, but another famous politician with questionable religious tint did fairly well coming out of MA, so you never know. Also, Romney's moving fast towards the right, but his past is actually fairly liberal, speaking out in favor of Gay Marriage, for example. In the era of blogs and YouTube, you just can't get away with denying your past statements. I haven't heard him speak so I can't discuss his charisma, but again, white male, nice hair. He is a Governor, statistically a big leg up. Like Huckabee and other's he's at the end of that line. He can use the campaign to make a move for Senate. Kennedy's not going anywhere, but Kerry, if Romney runs a solid primary is vulnerable. He could also be a VP choice and I think he's an interesting one. If he can deliver EC votes from the heart of the Dem stronghold in the NE, that may take it in a close race. Plus as VP his Mormon religion gets muted, as does his "liberal" past. So while I think he has almost no chance for the big gig, I do think he can parlay a run into a longer career, and I think that's his goal. Look for him to run a cautious race, playing mostly to MA voters.

Final note on Senators. Obviously, if both parties nominate a Senator, which may very well happen, then the "Senate Anchor" is a wash.